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2007-2008年中国BDO-PTMEG-氨纶产业链研究报告
字数:2.6万 页数:68 图表数:67
中文电子版:7000元 中文纸版:6500元 发布日期:2008-09
英文电子版:1800美元 英文纸版:1700美元
编号:DB021 附件:下载 购买报告

  近年来,中国氨纶产业取得了长足发展,无论在产能、产量或者需求方面都保持着持续的增长。从2001至2007年,中国氨纶产量从1.70万吨,增至15.50万吨,增幅8.1倍;表观消费量由3.5万吨增至17.04万吨,增幅3.9倍;出口量从0.04万吨,增至2.04万吨,增幅51倍; 进口量从1.84万吨,降至1.30万吨,降幅30%; 进出口贸易差从2001至2005年为逆差,2006,2007年为顺差;氨纶自给率由48.57%至目前90.94%。 随着美国杜邦英威达公司(10万吨/年)、韩国晓星(7.4万吨/年)、日本旭化成(4万吨/年)氨纶投资高潮的影响, 今明两年中国也会掀起了一股新的氨纶投资高潮。

  氨纶与聚四氢呋喃(PTMEG)及1,4丁二醇(BDO)具有高度协同效应。目前,世界上BDO产品消费,THF占据41.5%;而THF消费量中,PTMEG占据80%;PTMEG的80%被氨纶生产吸收。因此,氨纶产业的发展对BDO与PTMEG具有非常大的推动力。BDO的产量从2004年的7万吨到2007的14.5万吨;PTMEG的产能从2005年的13.5万吨增长到2007年的15.5万吨。

图 2005-2009年中国PTMEG 供需分析(单位:万吨)
 200809022.gif
来源:水情木华整理

  随着中国经济的进一步成长,对化工用品的需求也将有进一步成长,作为化工产业链中重要的中间产品BDO-PTMEG-氨纶产业都将长足的发展。然而,高额的利润必将带来更多的厂商进入这个行业,产能也将随之增加,势必削弱原有生产者的利润。

  本报告主要依据国家统计局、中国聚氨酯协会、中国海关、中国石油和化学工业协会等公布的大量资料,对中国化工产业的发展情况、相关行业、主要细分产业、领先企业等进行了分析及预测,并对未来化工产业发展的整体环境及发展趋势进行探讨和研判。本报告为战略投资者选择恰当的投资时机和公司领导层做战略规划提供了准确的市场情报信息及科学的决策依据,同时对银行信贷部门也具有很好的参考价值。


China spandex industry has made great development in productivity, output and demand in recent years. From the year 2001 to 2007, the output has increased 8.1 times from 17,000 tons to 155,000 tons, apparent consumption has increased 3.9 times from 35,000 tons to 170,400 tons, the export has increased 51 times from 400 tons to 20,400 tons but the import has decreased 30% from 18,400 tons to 13,000 tons. The import and export was in passive balance from 2001 to 2005, but was in favorable balance in 2006 and 2007. Self-sufficiency rate of spandex has increased from 48.57% to current 90.94%. Affected by the expansion projects of INVISTA (100,000 tons /year), HYOSUNG (74,000 tons/year) and Asahi Kasei Corporation (40,000 toms/year), China will also see a rush to invest in the next few years. 

Spandex, PTMEG and BDO 1, 4 are in highly coordinated. In BDO Products Consumption currently, THF accounts for 41.5%, while in THF consumption, PTMEG accounts for 80%, and 80% PTMEG was used in the Spandex productions. Therefore, the development of spandex is quite positive for BDO and PTMEG productions. The output of BDO was increased from 70,000 tons in 2004 to 145,000 tons in 2007 and the production capability of PTMEG was increased from 135,000 tons in 2005 to 155,000 tons in 2007.

Supply and Demand of PTMEG in China, 2005-2009
(Unit:1000 Tons)
 2008009021.gif
Source:ResearchInChina

Along with China’s economy development, the demand for chemical products will see more growth, and the BDO-PTMEG- Spandex, as an import medium product chain of chemical industry will also see a fast development.

Based on the information from National Bureau of Statistics of China and China Polyurethane Industry Association, China Customs and China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association., etc, this report researched and forecasted China chemical industry and its related industries, main segments and major players. The report provides accurate information and scientific decision-making foundation for the strategic investors, has a good reference value for the bank credit departments. 


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