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Analysis Report on 3G terminal development trend

for the first half year of 2004

 

Report No. 418 Title Report on the analysis of 3G terminal development trend for the first half year of 2004
Words 42 thousand Charts and tables 92 Total pages 92 Finished date July 2004
Language English Price $2000

 

Summary

 
Analysis on the configuration of commercial handset for WCDMA

For the weight and the dimensions, the average weight for the commercial handsets of WCDMA, which are new in the market for the first half year of 2004, is 135g and the average dimensions is 146cc; by contrast, the average weight is only 95g for GSM/GPRS handsets, and the average dimensions is only 97.6cc. It still needs one year or so for the weight and the dimensions of WCDMA handsets to catch up the level of GSM/GPRS handsets.

As for the talk time and standby time, the average Continuous Talking Time for the commercial handsets of WCDMA for the fisrt half year of 2004 is141 miniutes, and the average Continuous Standby Time reaches up to 287 hours. Compared with the second half year, the average Continuous Talking Time for WCDMA handset is not increased, while the average Continuous Standby Time has been significantly increased by 66%, this is mainly due to that the standby time for FOMA 900i Serial handsets has reched up to 400 hours or so.

In addition, compared with GSM/GPRS handsets, the Continuous Talking Time for WCDMA handsets is very short, less than 2/3 of the Continuous Talking Time for GSM/GPRS hansets. It still needs one and half years or so to catch up the level of GSM/GPRS handsets. However, the standby time for WCDMA is about 120 longer than GSM/GPRS handsets.

Table 1:The comparison of weight, dimensions and using time between WCDMA handsets and GSM/GPRS handsets.

 

WCDMA handset

GSM/GPRS handset

Weight

135g

95g

Dimensions

146cc

97.6cc

Continuous Talking Time

141minutes

239 minutes

Continuous Standby Time

287 hours

167 hours

Source: PdayResearch£¬2004.7

As for the screen resolution, the screen resolution of the commercial handsets for WCDMA has been constantly enhanced for the first half year of 2003 and the first half year of 2004. For the first half year of 2003, there was no any commercial handsets with the screen resolution of 240¡Á320 for WCDMA yet, and for the first half year of 2004, there was no any screen with resolution of 128¡Á160 yet, and the screens with resolution of 240¡Á320 are increasingly becoming the dominant components and have been applied in 60% of the commerical handsets for WCDMA.

As for the screen color depth, there were 30% of the models of WCDMA handset using 4096-color screen for the first half year of 2003. For the second half year of 2003, however, the 4096-color screen no longer existed, and the 65K-color screen had been used in 87.5% of the models, and there were also 12.5% of the models that use 260K-color screen. For the first half year of 2004, the penetration of 260K-color screen had been increased by 27.5 percentage points with 40% of the WCDMA handset models using it following the launch of FOMA 900i serial handsets. For the same period, the proportion of 65K-color screen had dramatically decreased by 27.5% with only 60% of the WCDMA handset models using it.

As for the camera, all the commerical handsets for WCDMA have camera since the first half year of 2003, and most are built-in CMOS cameras. But as Japanese vendors introduced more and more models that take CCD camera, the proportion of such handset models keeps increasing, up to 53% for the first half year of 2004 against 20% of the first half year of 2003, and the tendency for it to become the dominant component is very obvious.

The resolution of the camera for WCDMA handsets had kept increasing for the first half year of 2003 and the first half year of 2004, mainly because of more WCDMA handsets with high resolution camera launched from Japanese vandors. However, the cameras with 300K pixels were still the main products in the first half year of 2004, with applications to 47% of WCDMA handsets.


Analysis on the components of the commerical handsets for EV-DO


For the weight and the dimensions, the average weight and the average dimension for the commercial handsets of EV-DO launched in the first half year of 2003 is 98g and 86cc respectively; which are almost the same with CDMA/CDMA 1X handsets for that same period. But for supporting more applications, the weight of the commercial handsets for EV-DO had beed somewhat increased. Compared with the first half year of 2003, the average weight of the commercial handsets for EV-DO had been increased by 17.5%, up to 115g, for the first half year of 2004, and the average dimension has been increased by 18.3%, up to 102cc.

As for the talk time and standby time, the Continuous Talking Time for the commercial handsets of EV-DO had kept at 170 minutes for the fisrt half year of 2003 and the fisrt half year of 2004, and the Continuous Standby Time had kept in general at 200 hours. The talk time equals what it is for CDMA/CDMA1X handsets, but the standby time is longer than that of CDMA/CDMA1X handsets.
Table 2- The comparison of weight, dimensions and using time between EV-DO handsets and CDMA/CDMA1X handsets.

 

EV-DO handset

CDMA/CDMA1X handset

Weight

115g

86g

Dimensions

102cc

90cc

Continuous Talking Time

171 minutes

176 minutes

Continuous Standby Time

198.5 hours

125 hours

Source: PdayResearch£¬2004.7


As for the screen resolution, the screen resolutions for 60% of the commercial handsets for EV-DO fell in the range of 128¡Á160 for the first half year of 2003. But, the proportion for the commercial handsets for EV-DO with screen resolution of 128¡Á160 had sharply decreased to 30% or so, instead, the screen resolution of 176¡Á220 had been applied rapidly, with proportion sharply up to 33%. By the middle of the year of 2004, the proportions of handset screens between 128¡Á160 and 176¡Á220 were flush with each other for EV-DO handsets. Nevertheless, the resolution of 128¡Á160 will be gradually replaced by 176¡Á220 and 240¡Á320.

As for the Screen Color Depth, there is no any 4096-color screen for EV-DO handsets since the beginning of 2003, and 65K-color screen and 260K-color screen halved the applications. But, by the middle of 2004, 260k-color screens had been applied to 92% of EV-DO handseta, and the 65K -color screen will be eliminated soon from EV-DO handsets. It is worth to notice, that KDDI actually launched the EV-DO handsets with 1568K-color screen, manufactured by HTTACHI.

As for the camera, most EV-DO handsets have built-in cameras, and incresdingly more and more handset models present CCD camera, and the proportion for such models had increased to 33% for the first half year of 2004 from 18% for the first half year of 2003. To the contrary, due to more models of EV-DO handsets with CMOS camera launched from Sumsong, the models with CCD cameras had decreased by 7% against the first half year of 2003.

In addition, the camera resolution applied in the commercial handsets obviously tends to rise. By the beginning of 2004, there is no 100K pixels camera any longer for EV-DO handsets, and the 300K cameras became the mainstay, along with 1M camera applied in 23% of the handset models. It is predicted that the 1M cameras would be popularized at first ahead of EV-DO handsets.


The comprison between WCDMA handsets and EV-DO handsets


For the weight and the dimensions, WCDMA handsets are slightly inferior. By the middle of 2004, its weight and dimension are higher by 15% and 30% respectively than EV-DO handsets. Nevertheless, the gaps between this two handset models are increasingly narrowed, and it is predicted that the weight gap would be narrowed by 5%, and the dimension gap would shrink by 6% for the second half year of 2004.

As for the talk time and standby time, the gaps between this two handset models are also increasingly narrowed following the launch of FOMA 900i serial handsets, and the pace for this narrowing would surpass that of narrowing the gaps of weight and dimensions. It is predicted that this two handset models would reach the same level in terms of talk time for the second half year of 2004. But in terms of standby time, WCDMA handses had overtaken the EV-Do handsets for the first half year.

As for the screen resolution, the perfomance of WCDMA handsets is higher than EV-Do handsets. The former had taken the resolution level of 240¡Á320 as the mainstay simply for the first half year of 2004, with the elimination of the level of 128¡Á160, and the latter still took the level of 128¡Á160 and 176¡Á220 as the main resolution.

As for the screen color depth, the performance of EV-DO handsets is higher than WCDMA handsets. 4096-color had been phased out with the former simply for the first half year of 2004, and 65K color almost died out for the first half year of 2004, by contrast, the latter only got rid of 4096-color when entering into the second half year of 2003, and still was taking 65K-color and 260K-color as the mainstay for the first half year of 2004.

As for camera format, the tendency for CCD camera to become the mainstay for WCDMA handsets is very obvious due to more FOMA handset models with CCD comera launched from Japanese vandors in the first half year of 2004. Also, more and more EV-DO handsets have been using CCD camera, therefore, the difference between this two handsets is not big in terms of the uptake of camera format.

As for camera resolution, the two cameras almost adopt the same level of it, namely, higher resolution. But, in consideration of the present situation, WCDMA will go further, and there already have some commercial handset models with 2M pixels camera launched. But for EV-DO, there are only commercial handsets with 1M pixels launched. Surely, it may help1M pixels be widely used earlier in the new EV-DO handsets.

As for memory, the average memory of EV-DO handsets is larger that that of WCDMA handset. Calculated on the commercial handset modes with known memory, the average memory for EV-DO is 88.6MB£¬while the memory for WCDMA handset is only 21.5MB. Nevertheless, the WCDMA handsets generally have extension slots, such as MMC, SD etc., while the EV-DO handsets don't have such slots.

In addition, due to that there is no any Video Phone Services launched from the current EV-DO operators and that the main WCDMA operators, such as NTT DoCoMo, Hutchison, all provide this service, there are far more WCDMA handset models supporting Video Phone Services than that of EV-DO handset models in the same category. Currently, there are only two new EV-DO handset models launched from sumong, while there are about 30 WCDMA handsets supporting this service.


Table 3: The general comparison between WCDMA handsets and EV-DO handsets

 

WCDMA Handset

EV-DO Handset

Tendency

Weight

heavier

lighter

The gap is gradually closing

Dimensions

big

small

The gap is gradually closing

Talk Time

shorter

longer

The gap is gradually closing

Standby Time

longer

shorter

WCDMA is still ahead

Screen Resolution

high

low

WCDMA is still ahead

Screen Color Depth

poor

rich

EV-DO is still ahead

Camera Format

similar

similar

Keep unchanged

Camera Resolution

similar

similar

EV-DO is the first to comprensively upgade to the level of 1M pixels

Memory

small

big

Keep unchanged

Memory Extension Supports

good

bad

Keep unchanged

Video Phone Supports

good

bad

The gap is gradually closing

Source: PdayResearch£¬2004.7

 

 

 

contents


Research and defination

Chapter 1£ºThe current status of development and characteristics of global 3G terminal market

1.1 Overview of the development of global 3G market
1.1.1 Global 3G uers number
1.1.2 Global 3G operator
1.1.3 Global 3G commercial terminal
1.1.4 The comparison of 3G development among main regions in the world
1.1.5 The comparison of development between WCDMA and EV-DO
1.2 Analysis on the current status of global 3G terminal market
1.3 The status of development of China's 3G terminal market
1.3.1 The developmend and evolution mode of China's 3G terminal industry
1.3.2 Domestic famous vendors march into 3G terminal market
1.3.3 The problems that need to be solved during the development of China's 3G terminal
1.3.4 Governmental investment to 3G terminal
1.3.5 The prediction of the development of 3G eauipments market in China's mainland

Chapter 2: The anslysis on global 3G handset components for the first half year of 2004

2.1 The status of WCDMA commercial handsets for the first half year of 2004
2.1.1 Weight and dimensions
2.1.2 Talk and standby time
2.1.3 Screen resolution and color depth
2.1.4 Camera format and resolution
2.1.5 Prediction of WCDMA commercial handsets components for the second half year of 2004
2.2 The status of EV-DO commercial handsets for the first half year of 2004
2.2.1 Weight and dimensions
2.2.2 Talk and standby time
2.2.3 Screen resolution and color depth
2.2.4 Camera format and resolution
2.2.5 Prediction of EV-DO commercial handsets components for the second half year of 2004
2.3 The comparison and analysis between WCDMA and EV-DO commercial handsets
2.3.1 Weight and dimensions
2.3.2 Talk and standby time
2.3.3 Screen resolution and color depth
2.3.4 Camera format and resolution
2.3.5 Analysis and conclusion

Chapter 3: The development trends and prediction of global 3G terminal markets

3.1 The analysis on development trends of global 3G market
3.2 The prediction of the development of global 3G terminal market
3.2.1 The prediction of the development of global WCDMA terminal market
3.2.2 The prediction of the development of global CDMA terminal market
3.3 The prediction of global 3G terminal chips
3.4 The prediction of global 3G terminal batteries

Chapter 4: The analysis on major 3G terminal providers
Concepts and description

4.1 The analysis on commercial 3G providers in Europe and America
4.1.1 Nokia
4.1.2 Motorola
4.1.3 SonyEricsson
4.1.4 Siemens
4.1.5 GTRAN Wireless
4.1.6 Novatel Wireless
4.1.7 Option Wireless
4.1.8 Sierra Wireless
4.1.9 Analysis and conclusion
4.2 Analysis on the 3G terminal providers in Japan and Korea
4.2.1 Samsung
4.2.2 LG
4.2.3 CURITEL
4.2.4 SK Teletech
4.2.5 NEC
4.2.6 Sanyo
4.2.7 Kyocera
4.2.8 Sharp
4.2.9 Mitsubishi.
4.2.10 Panasonic
4.2.11 Fujitsu
4.2.12 Toshiba
4.2.13 Hitachi
4.2.14 Analysis and conclusion
4.3 Analysis on the potential domestic 3G terminal providers
4.3.1 DTT
4.3.2 Huawei
4.3.3 ZTE
4.3.4 UTSTARCOM
4.3.5 LANGCHAO LG
4.3.6 Group Sense (International) Limited
4.3.7 Konka
4.3.8 lenovo
4.3.9 DBTEL
4.3.10 Amoi
4.3.11 DOPOD
4.3.12 Bird
4.3.13 Soutec
4.3.14 DAXIAN.
4.3.15 CHINA PUTIAN Institute of Technology
4.3.16 Eastcom
4.3.17 HESENSE
4.3.18 ASUS
4.3.19 CYIT
4.3.20 Analysis and conclusion

Chapter 5: Main views and conclusion

5.1 Analysis on the components of WCDMA commercial handsets
5.2 Analysis on the components of EV-DO commercial handsets
5.3 The comparison between WCDMA handsets and EV-DO handsets
5.4 The analysis on major 3G terminal providers in the world


 

Directory of Charts and Tables

 

Chart 1-1 Global 3G user number
Chart 1-2 The statistics on the number of global commercial 3G operators
Chart 1-3 The statistics on global 3G terminal models
Chart 1-4 The statistics on the number of commercial 3G operators in key regions of the world
Table 1-1 The comparison of the development between WCDMA and EV-DO£¨by the end of July of 2004£©
Table 1-2 Global commercial 3G terminal providers and users
Table 1-3 The prediction of China¡¯s 3G terminal market scope for 2005-2010
Chart 2-1 The average Weight and dimensions of WCDMA commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-2 The average talk and standby time of WCDMA commercial handsets for 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-3 The statistics on the screen resolution of WCDMA commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-4 The statistics on the screen color depth of WCDMA commercial handsets for 1H 2004
Chart 2-5 The statistics on the camera format of WCDMA commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-6 The statistics on the camera resolution of WCDMA commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Table 2-1 The prediction of the main components of WCDMA commercial handsets for 2H 2004
Chart 2-7 The average Weight and dimensions of EV-DO commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-8 The average talk and standby time of EV-DO commercial handsets for1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-9 The statistics on the screen resolution of EV-DO commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-10 The statistics on the screen color depth of WCDMA commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-11 The statistics on the camera format of EV-DO commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Chart 2-12 The statistics on the camera resolution of EV-DO commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 1H 2004
Table 2-2 The prediction of the main components of EV-DO commercial handsets for 2H 2004
Chart 2-13 The prediction of the gap of weight and dimension between WCDMA and EV-DO commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 2H 2004
Chart 2-4 The prediction of the gap of talk and standby time between WCDMA and EV-DO commercial handsets for 1H 2003 and 2H 2004
Chart 2-15 The statistical comparison of screen resolution between WCDMA and EV-DO handsers for 1H 2004
Chart 2-16 The statistical comparison of screen color depth between WCDMA and EV-DO handsers for 1H 2004
Table 2-3 The general comparison between WCDMA and EV-Do commercial handsets
Chart 3-1 The development trends of mobile terminals
Table 3-1 Shipment forecast of handsets of major formats in the world for 2004-2008
Chart 3-2 Shipment forecast of WCDMA terminals in the world for 2004-2008
Chart 3-3 Shipment forecast of EDGE handsets in the world for 2004-2008
Chart 3-4 Shipment forecast of CDMA handsets in the world for 2004-2008
Chart 3-5 Shipment forecast of CDMA2000 1xRTT terminals in the world for 2004-2008
Chart 3-6 Shipment forecast of CDMA2000 1xEV-DO/DV terminals in the world for 2004-2008
Chart 3-7 The prediction of the development scale of world handset chip market for 2002-2008
Chart 3-8 Shipment forecast of WCDMA and EV-DO/DV chips for 2004-2008
Chart 3-9 The scale of sales revenues of global fuel cells (USD 1 billion)
Chart 3-10 The market scale of Japan¡¯s fuel in 2020
Chart 4-1 The statistics on the changes of Nokia 3Gteminal components
Table 4-1 The statistics on Nokia 3G terminal compnents
Chart 4-2 The statistics on the chages of Motorola WCDMA terminal components
Chart 4-3 The statistics on the changes of Motorola EV-DO terminal compnents
Table 4-2 The statistics of Motorola terminal components
Chart 4-4 The statistics on the change of SonyEricsson terminal components
Table 4-3 The statistics on SonyEricsson terminal components
Chart 4-5 The statistics on the change of Siemens 3G terminal components
Table 4-4 The statistics on Siemens 3G terminal components
Table 4-5 The statistics on GTRAN Wireless 3G terminal components
Table 4-6 The statistics on Novatel Wireless 3G terminal components
Table 4-7 The statistics on Option Wireless 3G terminal components
Table 4-8 The statistics on Sierra Wireless 3G terminal components
Table 4-9 The 3G handsets comparison between major vandors in Europe & America
Chart 4-6 The statistics on the change of Samsung EV-DO terminal components
Table 4-10 The statistics on Samsung 3G terminal components
Chart 4-7 The statistics on the change of LG EV-DO terminal components
Table 4-11 The statistics on LG 3G terminal components
Chart 4-8 The statistics on the change of CURITEL EV-DO terminal components
Table 4-12 The statistics on CURITEL 3G terminal components
Chart 4-9 The statistics on the change of SK Teletech terminal components
Table 4-13 The statistics on SK Teletech 3G terminal components
Chart 4-10 The statistics on the change of NEC 3G terminal components
Table 4-14 The statistics on NEC 3G terminal components
Chart 4-11 The statistics on the change of Sanyo WCDMA terminal compnoents
Table 4-15 The statistics on Sanyo 3G terminal components
Table 4-16 The statistics on kyocera 3G terminal components
Chart 4-12 The statistics on the change of SharpWCDMA terminal compnoents
Table 4-17 The statistics on Sharp 3G terminal components
Chart 4-13 The statistics on the change of Mitsubishi.WCDMA terminal compnoents
Table 4-18 The statistics on Mitsubishi.3G terminal components
Chart 4-14 The statistics on the change of Panasonic WCDMA handsets compnoents
Table 4-19 The statistics on Panasonic 3G terminal components
Chart 4-15 The statistics on the change of FujitsuWCDMA handsets compnoents
Table 4-20 The statistics on Fujitsu3G terminal components
Table 4-21 The statistics on Toshiba 3G terminal components
Chart 4-16 The statistics on the change of HitachiEV-DO terminal compnoents
Table 4-22 The statistics on Hitachi3G terminal components
Table 4-23 The 3G handsets comparison between maijor vandors in Japan and Korea
Chart 4-17 The progress of the commercialization of DTTTD-SCDMA handsets
Chart 4-18 The progress of the commercialization of HuaweiWCDMA handsets
Chart 4-19 The progress of the commercialization of ZTE 3G handsets
Chart 4-20 The progress of the commercialization of Konka3G handsets
Chart 4-21 The progress of the commercialization of lenovo3G handsets
Chart 4-22 The progress of the commercialization of DBTEL 3G handsets
Chart 4-23 The progress of the commercialization of Amoi 3G handsets
Chart 4-24 The progress of the commercialization of Soutec 3G handsets
Chart 4-25 The progress of the commercialization of HESENSE 3G handsets
Table 4-24 The conditions of 3G terminal R&D for domestic vandors
Table 5-1 The comparison of weight, dimensions and using time between WCDMA and GSM/GPRS handsets
Table 5-2 The comparison of weight, dimensions and using time between EV-DO and CDMA/CDMA1X handsets
Table 5-3 The general comprison between WCDMA and EV-DO commercial handsets
Table 5-4 The comparison of 3G handsets between major vandors in Europe and America
Table 5-5 The compridon of 3G handsets between major vandors in Japan and Korea
Table 5-6 The conditions of 3G terminal R&D of domestec vandors

 

 

 

 

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