电信重组的流言蜚语

(水清木华研究中心 2008-3-21)


  2008年1-2月,一则电信重组的消息在坊间不胫而走,而且是越传越烈、越传越真。即:中国铁通并入中国移动,中国联通的CDMA网与GSM网拆分,前者CDMA并入中国电信,后者GSM合并中国网通成立新中国联通。由此形成移动、联通、电信、网通、铁通五大电信运营商的“三足鼎立”之势,实现三大电信运营商的全业务运营。

Source:新浪科技

  事实上,这次流传的“五合三”重组方案与2004年普遍流传的分拆中国联通和“六合三”方案相似,没有一点新意。只是历次重组传闻的一个翻版,除了传闻内容有所变化,传播方式和炒作方式几乎都一样。先是投行和券商放消息,接着各种媒体跟风炒作,然后一些专家出来发表意见,最后不了了之。

表:历次电信重组传闻

2008年1月

2005年3月

2004年11月

2004年5月

3+1方案

六合三传闻

六合三传闻

四合二传闻

新的方案:就是6个运营商变成3+1方案

中国联通的CDMA网与GSM网将被拆分,前者并入中国电信,后者并入中国网通;

铁通并入中国移动。

传电信的改革方案即电信重组方案已敲定,基本三分天下:

移动+卫通=中国移动;拆分联通G网和C网,南北拆分铁通,联通C网+电信+北铁通=中国电信;联通C网+网通+南铁通=中国联通;

传中国移动与中国铁通、卫通整合,从此拥有全国性的一张固网;

中国联通分为三块,CDMA移动网络划归中国网通、GSM移动网络划归中国电信、联通原有固话及长途网络按南北划分。

传中国网通将与“移动电话老大”中移动合并;

中国电信与中国联通合并,

最终形成两大顶级电信运营商。


Source:水清木华研究中心

详细内容请参看附件:《 产业观察:电信重组的流言蜚语 》

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Market Talk on Telecom Restructuring

From January to February of 2008, the talk about the telecommunication restructuring spread like wildfire fast in the market, and the more widespread the gossip was going on in the market, the more likely it seemed to be true. According to the market talk, China Tietong would be merged into China Mobile and China Unicom’s CDMA and GSM networks would be spun off. The CDMA network would be merged into China Telecom, while the other would be incorporated into China Netcom to form a new China Unicom. Consequently, the existing five telecom operators (China Mobile, China Unicom, ChinaTelecom, China Netcom and China Tietong) would be are transformed into three big ones with full-service operation.

Source:SINA Corporation

In fact, the latest market talk on telecom restructuring plan of creating three telecom giants out of five telecom operators is nothing new and very similar to the widespread rumor in 2004 about China Unicom splitting to create three out of six telecom operators. This is just another version of the previous rumors of telecom restructuring. Only the content of rumor has some changes, but the way of propagating and press speculation are almost the same. Generally, such news is released firstly by investment banks and securities traders and then all kinds of media follow suit to make ballyhoo. After that, some experts will stand out to express their opinions and the gossip usually ends up with nothing definite.

Gossips of Telecom Restructuring

Jan. 2008

March, 2005

Nov. 2004

May 2004

Solution of “Three plus One”

Gossip of merger of six firms into one

Gossip of merger of six firms into one

Rumor of merger of four firms into two

New solution: turning six operators into three plus one

China Unicom’s

CDMA & GSM networks will be split, CDMA will be merged into China Telecom, GSM will be merged into China Netcom to form a new China Unicom

China Tietong will be merged into China Mobile

Telecom restructuring plan was finalized with the industry divided into three parts

⑴China Mobile
+ China Satcom
= ChinaMobile;

⑵splitting China Unicom C & G networks and

splitting China Tietong into North Tietong & South Tietong; C network of China Unicom + China Telecom + North Tietong =China Telecom

⑶G network of China Unicom +
China Netcom
+ South Tietong
= China Unicom

China Mobile taking over China Tietong & China Satcom to have one national fixed line network.

China Unicom will be divided into 3 parts:

C network goes to China Netcom;

G network goes to China Telecom;

China Netcom’s

PSTN & long-

Distance network will be divided into Northern part & Southern part.

China Netcom & China Mobile to be merged into one;

China Telecom & China Unicom to be merge into one;

To create a telecom market competed bytwo super telecom operators

Source:ResearchInChina

 

详细内容请参看附件:《 产业观察:电信重组的流言蜚语 》

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