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2007-2008年中国煤焦化上市公司研究报告
字数:2.0万 页数:51 图表数:54
中文电子版:5000元 中文纸版:4500元 发布日期:2008-04
英文电子版:1400美元 英文纸版:1300美元
编号:EY002 附件:下载 购买报告

  煤焦化是发展最成熟、最具代表性的煤化工产业,也是冶金工业的辅助产业。中国炼焦技术已进入世界先进行列,成为世界焦炭生产、消费及贸易第一大国。近年来,煤焦化市场逐步复苏,带来产品价格的持续上涨,从行业周期的角度来看,我们认为焦炭行业正处于行业景气提升的阶段。

  焦炭出口平均价格自2005年下半年大幅度下跌以来,在2006年开始止跌回升,2006年年内最大涨幅曾经达到过33美元/吨。进入2007年以来更是逐月环比上涨,在涨幅最大的第三季度平均价格达到了203美元/吨,比上年同期144美元/吨,累计上涨了近60美元/吨。

图:2002-2007年焦炭出口量及出口价格走势(美元/吨)
 200804161.jpg
来源:国家统计局

  预计2007-2008年国内粗钢表观消费量增长仍将保持在11%左右,这对国内焦炭需求将形成强有力的拉动因素,国内焦炭市场在钢材价格和炼焦成本的推动下也将对焦炭价格形成加固。

 

Coal-coking, as an auxiliary sector for the metallurgical industry, is the most mature sector in technology and the most representative of the coal chemical industry. China’s coking technology is advanced in the world and China is the biggest coke producer, consumer and exporter in the world. In recent years, coking market has had a gradual recovery, which has brought about a continuous rise in prices of coking products. We herein believe that the coking industry is on the upward trend from the perspective of industry cycles.

Since the second half of 2005, the average export price of coke had dropped dramatically. However, coke market had a rally in 2006 and once had the largest gain, hitting US$33 per ton, in the year. Since entering the year of 2007, the month-on-month growth in coke price has even picked up. The third quarter of 2007 had the biggest gain, which made coke price stand at US$203 per ton, representing an accumulated rise of nearly US$60/ton in coke price compared to US$144 per ton posted in the same period of 2006.

Export Volume and Export Price of China Coke, 2002-2007
 200804162.jpg
Source: The National Bureau of Statistics of China


It is forested that in the period 2007 to 2008, China’s growth of apparent consumption volume of crude steel will remain around 11%, which will be a powerful impetus to coke demand in China. Domestic coke market, stimulated by steel price and coking cost, will also strengthen coke price.

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