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2007-2008年中国工程机械行业研究报告
字数:2.0万 页数:73 图表数:67
中文电子版:6500元 中文纸版:6000元 发布日期:2008-04
英文电子版:1900美元 英文纸版:1800美元
编号:FY060 附件:下载 购买报告

  来自中国工程机械工业协会的最新统计表明,2007年中国工程机械行业的销售收入突破了2100亿元,在中国机械工业中位居第四,在世界工程机械行业中,销售收入仅次于美国,位列第二,现有的市场总量已占世界市场的近1/6。

  2007年工程机械进出口继续一路高歌猛进。根据海关总署的统计数据,2007年中国工程机械进出口贸易总额累计达到136.4亿美元,比上年增长52.6%。其中累计进口金额49.4亿美元,比上年增长25.7%;累计出口金额87亿美元,比上年增长73.5%,贸易顺差37.6亿美元。

  2008年行业仍将高速增长,产品结构决定投资价值。预计2008年工程机械行业收入和利润增长为45%左右,2009年收入增长38%左右。产品的技术含量和未来成长空间,产品结构具有优势的公司具有明显的投资价值。

图:工程机械行业产值增长预测
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资料来源:中国银河证券研究所

  从工程机械的区域销售情况来看,中西部省份位居前列,而且销售的增长速度也是中西部增速最快。从工程机械这两年的发展轨迹看,行业的景气并非线性,景气期的增长往往超出企业自己预期。工程机械的销售增长与其下游产业房地产,铁路建设,城市轨道建设紧密相连。在中国城市化高速发展期,房地产和基建的需求导致上升趋势不可扭转。

 

According to the latest statistics of China Construction Machinery Association of CCMA, sales revenue of China construction machinery industry in 2007 reached above CNY210 billion, ranking the fourth place in the entire China machinery industry, ranking the second place in the world just after the United States of America. Its existing market share accounts for one sixth of the global total.

In 2007, China’s import and export of construction machinery industry continued a roaring growth. According to statistics of General Administration of Customs, China’s total trade volume of import and export of construction machinery reached US$13.64 billion, up 52.6% year on year. In which, import volume was  S$4.94 billion, up 25.7% on year, and export volume was US$8.7 billion, up 73.5% on year, resulting in a trade surplus of US$3.76 billion.

China’s construction machinery industry will maintain a rapid growth in 2008, in which product mix determines investment value. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of China’s construction machinery industry will be about 45% in 2008 and 38% in 2009. In the future development of China’s construction machinery industry, the companies, which have advantages in product technology and product mix, will have outstanding investment value.

Forecast of Industrial Output Growth of Construction Machinery Industry
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Source:China Galaxy Securities

From the perspective of regional sales of construction machinery, provinces in central and west parts of China were on the top and the growth rates of sales in these regions were also the fastest. Based on industry development track in the past two years, we can draw the conclusion that the industry boom was non-linear and growth in booming period was beyond company’s expectation. Sales growth of construction machinery is close related with its downstream industries, including real estate, railway construction and urban mass transit construction. In the process of rapid development of China’s urbanization, demand of real estate industry and infrastructure construction for construction machinery is inevitably on the upward trend.

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