2008-2009年中国船舶制造行业研究报告 >> 水清木华研究中心

　　2008年，全国造船完工量2881万载重吨，同比增长52.2%，新承接船舶订单5818万载重吨，同比下降40.9%，手持船舶订单20460万载重吨，同比增长28.7%，分别占世界市场份额的29.5%、37.7%和35.5%。造船三大指标中新接船舶订单量与去年同期相比下降了4.7%个百分点。

图：2003-2008年船舶制造业三项指标

资料来源：中国船舶工业行业协会

　　2008年，国际造船市场风云突变，持续六年的兴旺行情落下帷幕。据英国克拉克松研究公司统计，全年世界新船成交2127艘、1.5亿载重吨，比2007年分别下降55.3%和42.7%。特别是进入第四季度，新船订单更是大幅萎缩，行情几乎处于停止状态，全球新船成交476万载重吨，月均成交159万载重吨，仅为前9个月月均1600万载重吨的十分之一。从十月份开始，中国造船完工量大于新接订单量，5年来手持订单量按月统计首次出现连续下降。与此同时，修船市场同样呈现前高后低的走势。前三季度，修船市场一派兴旺，船坞饱满，骨干修船企业手持大量船舶改装订单。10月份以后，船舶修理业务急剧减少，改装船业务基本停止，部分修船厂出现船坞空置现象，修船价格出现大幅下降，幅度达20%以上。

　　国务院总理温家宝2009年2月11日主持召开国务院常务会议，审议并原则通过了船舶工业调整振兴规划。

　　会议强调，加快船舶工业调整和振兴，必须采取积极的支持措施，稳定造船订单，化解经营风险，确保产业平稳较快发展；控制新增造船能力，推进产业结构调整，提高大型企业综合实力，形成新的竞争优势；加快自主创新，开发高技术高附加值船舶，发展海洋工程装备，培育新的经济增长点。一要稳定船舶企业生产；二要扩大船舶市场需求；三要发展海洋工程装备；四要积极发展修船业务；五要支持企业兼并重组；六要加强技术改造，提高自主创新能力。

In 2008, Chinese accomplished shipbuilding output was 28.81 million deadweight tonnages, rising by 52.2% of last year. The newly undertook ship orders were 58.18 million deadweight tonnages, a reduction of 40.9% of last year. Ship orders in hand were 204.6 million deadweight tonnages, increased by 28.7% compared with 2007. According to the Clarksons, the market shares of Chinese accomplished shipbuilding output, newly undertook ship orders and ship orders in hand accounted for 29.5%, 37.7% and 35.5% respectively in the world, in which Chinese accomplished shipbuilding output and ship orders in hand kept a fast growth for six consecutive years and led to the three indicators standing the second place in the world.

China’s Accomplished Shipbuilding Output, Newly Undertook Orders
and Orders in Hand, 2003-2008 (Unit: 10,000 deadweight tonnage)

Source: CANSI

According to the Clarkson, in 2008, the global newly undertook ship orders were totaled at 150 million deadweight tonnages, a reduction of 42.7% of last year. Especially In Q4 2008, the global newly undertook ship orders were only totaled at 4.76 million deadweight tonnages, which mean each month had an order as small as 1.59 million deadweight tonnages during this quarter, which was only 1/10 of the monthly average during the previous nine months of 2008.

With the transfer of international financial crisis to the real economy, Chinese shipbuilding industry has also felt the coming of strikes. In 2008, the newly undertook ship orders were 58.18 million deadweight tonnages and only 2.61 million deadweight tonnages in the fourth quarter, less than 5% of the whole year’s. Chinese accomplished shipbuilding output exceeded the new undertook orders from October of 2008, first consecutive reduction of monthly orders in hand over the past five years. It is predicted that Chinese accomplished shipbuilding output in 2009 will be over 40 million deadweight tonnages and 56 million deadweight tonnages of orders in hand of last year’s was scheduled to accomplish in 2009. The intervals are about 16 million deadweight tonnages. It is predicted that the newly undertook orders are only about 20 to 30 million deadweight tonnages, half or more reduction year on year. At present, Chinese ship orders in hand declined from 205 million to million deadweight tonnages in 2007 to 160 million deadweight tonnages.

In February 2009, Chinese government issued the Adjustment and Revitalization Plans of Chinese Shipping Industry, showing the Chinese government’s determination to support shipbuilding industry.

The plans emphasis on the points as following: firstly, to stabilize the production; secondly, to enlarge the market demand; thirdly, to develop marine engineering equipment; fourthly, to actively promote the ship repairing; fifthly, to support the merge & acquisition; sixthly, to strengthening the technical innovations.

第一章 2008年中国船舶制造业运营状况
1.1 2008年中国经济形势对船舶制造业的影响
1.2 2008年船舶制造业相关产业政策
1.3 2003-2008年船舶制造业主要数据指标统计
1.3.1 2003-2008年造船三大指标统计
1.3.2 2003-2008年造船业经济规模快速增长
1.3.3 2003-2008年造船业经济效益不断提高
1.3.4 2003-2008年船舶出口增长迅猛

第二章中国船舶制造业发展现状
2.1 中国船舶制造业概况
2.2 中国船舶行业发展现状评价
2.2.1规模状况与行业竞争力分析
2.2.2 盈利能力分析
2.2.3 资产负债情况分析
2.3.4 成长能力分析
2.3.5 运营效率分析

第三章中国船舶行业产业链分析
3.1 2008年中国船舶原材料市场概况
3.2 中国船舶行业发展影响因素分析
3.2.1 生产要素分析
3.2.2 市场需求条件分析
3.2.3 相关产业分析
3.2.4 造船企业内部因素分析
3.2.5 政府对造船业的影响分析
3.2.6 其他影响因素

第四章中国船舶制造行业发展趋势与预测
4.1 2009年中国船舶制造行业发展概况预测
4.1.1 船舶生产能力和产量分析
4.1.2 中国造船企业的国际竞争力分析
4.1.3 中国船舶设备配套国产化预测
4.2 造船原料市场发展趋势分析
4.2.1 船舶用中厚板发展趋势分析
4.2.2 中国造船用钢材市场分析

第五章中国船舶市场供需预测
5.1 影响中国船舶需求的经济因素
5.1.1中国宏观经济
5.1.2 中国水运
5.1.3 中国港口
5.2 中国船舶市场供需预测
5.2.1 散货船市场
5.2.2 集装箱市场
5.2.3 油轮市场
5.2.4 船舶配套设备市场
5.2.5 中国船舶市场规模预测
5.2.6 中国船价走势预测

第六章中国船舶制造业优势企业分析
6.1 企业竞争概况
6.1.1 主要企业竞争力评价
6.1.2 主要企业销售收入
6.2 中船集团
6.2.1中船集团概况
6.2.2中船集团生产经营动态
6.2.3 中船集团发展趋势分析
6.3 上海外高桥造船有限公司
6.3.1 上海外高桥造船有限公司概况
6.3.2 上海外高桥造船有限公司生产经营动态
6.3.3 上海外高桥造船有限公司竞争分析
6.4 中船重工
6.4.1 中船重工集团概况
6.4.2 中船重工集团生产经营动态
6.4.3 中船重工集团竞争分析
6.4.4 中船重工集团发展趋势分析
6.5 广船国际
6.5.1广州广船国际股份有限公司概况
6.5.2 广州广船国际股份有限公司经营动态
6.6大连船舶重工集团有限公司
6.6.1大连船舶重工集团有限公司概况
6.6.2 大连船舶重工集团有限公司经营动态
6.6.3 大连船舶重工集团有限公司发展战略分析
6.7 江苏新时代造船有限公司
6.7.1江苏新时代造船有限公司概况
6.7.2 江苏新时代造船有限公司经营动态

第七章中国船舶制造业投资机会与风险防范分析
7.1 中国船舶制造业投资机会分析
7.2 风险防范分析
7.2.1 行业投资的风险分析
7.2.2 风险的防范措施

1. Overview of Chinese Shipbuilding Industry in 2008
1.1 Influences of the Economic
1.2 Policies in 2008
1.3 Statistics of Major Indices, 2003-2008

2. Operations of Chinese Shipbuilding Industry
2.1 Status Quo
2.2 Developments
2.2.1 Market Scale and Competition
2.2.2 Profitability
2.2.3 Asset/Liability
2.3.4 Growth Ability
2.3.5 Operational Efficiency

3. Chinese Shipbuilding Industry Chain Analysis
3.1 Raw Material Market in 2008
3.2 Productions
3.3 Market Demands
3.4 Related Industries
3.5 Internal Analysis of Shipbuilding Companies
3.6 Influence of Government
3.7 Other Influential Factors

4. Forecast of Chinese Shipbuilding Industry
4.1 Overall Forecast in 2009
4.1.1 Production Capacity and Output
4.1.2 Oversea Competition
4.1.3 Localization of Ship Corollary Equipment Manufacturing
4.2 Shipbuilding Raw Material Market Forecast

5. Supply and Demand
5.1 Economic Factors
5.1.1 Macro Economy
5.1.2 Waterway Transportation
5.1.3 Ports
5.2 Forecast of Supply and Demand
5.2.1 Bulk Carrier
5.2.2 Container Ship
5.2.3 Oil Tanker
5.2.4 Ship Corollary Equipment Market
5.2.5 Forecast of Market Scale
5.2.6 Prices Forecast

6. Key Players
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 Evaluation of Key Players
6.1.2 Sales Revenue of Key Players
6.2 China State Shipbuilding Corporation
6.2.1 Company Profile
6.2.2 Operation
6.2.3 Development Strategies
6.3 Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.
6.3.1 Company Profile
6.3.2 Operation
6.3.3 Competitiveness
6.4 China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
6.4.1 Company Profile
6.4.2 Operation
6.4.3 Competitiveness
6.4.4 Development Strategies
6.5 Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd.
6.5.1 Company Profile
6.5.2 Operation
6.6 Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd.
6.6.1 Company Profile
6.6.2 Operation
6.6.3 Development Strategies
6.7 Jiangsu New Times Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.
6.7.1 Company Profile
6.7.2 Operation

7. Investment Opportunities and Risks
7.1 Investment Opportunities
7.2 Investment Risks
7.2.1 Risks
7.2.2 Countermeasures

图1-1 2003-2008年船舶制造业三项指标图
图1-2 2003-2008年船舶制造业完成工业总产值示意图
图1-3 2003-2008年船舶制造业销售收入和利润总额示意图
图1-4 2003-2008年船舶出口增长量图
图4-1 世界造船完工量（百万载重吨）
图4-2 2008年中国20mm中板主导市场价格走势图
图5-1 中国水运2007-2010年货运量预测
图5-2 中国港口集装箱码头建设情况
图5-3 1999-2009 年全球铁矿石海运贸易增速
图5-4 2001-2009 年中国铁矿石进口增速
图5-5 全球集装箱海运贸易与GDP 高度正相关
图5-6 2005-2009 年全球集装箱海运贸易增速
图5-7 全球三大船型新船订单占现有船队运力比例
图6-1 2006-2008年中船集团造船三大指标
图6-2 2006-2008年上海外高桥造船三大指标
图6-3 2006-2008年大连重工造船三大指标
图6-4 2006-2008年江苏新时代造船三大指标

表1-1 2003-2008年中国宏观经济形势
表1-2 2003-2008年船舶制造业三项指标
表2-1中国现有5000 级以上造船设施分布
表2-2 2008年中国船舶工业的完工量、新订单量、手持订单量占世界的份额情况
表2-3 近13年中国的船舶工业的世界排名及市场份额
表2-4 2008年新承接船舶订单量排名前10位的企业
表2-5 2008年手持船舶订单量排名前10位的企业
表2-6 2008年手持船舶订单量排名前10位的企业
表2-7 利润总额增长情况
表2-8 累计资产资金指标情况
表2-9亏损企业亏损额增长情况
表2-10 船舶制造业产成品变化情况
表2-11 销售成本累计增加情况
表2-12 财务费用增长情况
表 3-1 造船用低合金钢比例
表 3-2 典型油船和散货船船价走势
表4-1 2008-2010年中国的船舶工业新增产能预测
表 4-2 韩国大型造船设施（5万级以上吨级）
表 4-3 日本大型造船设施（5万级以上吨级）
表 4-4 中国大型造船设施（5万级以上吨级）
表 4-5 中韩造船竞争因素分析
表 4-6 中国三大主机厂船用柴油机产量（万千瓦）
表 4-7 中国正在建设的船用设备基地
表4-8 2008年中国中厚板产量统计表（万吨）
表 5-1 中国水运运输量、船舶拥有量数据
表 5-2 中国港口近年保持增长迅速
表5-3 制造内销远洋船进口的各类关键设备与部件
表 5-4 中国低速船用柴油机年需求量预测
表 5-5 中日韩新船需求量预测（年均值）
表5-6 新船造价
表6-1 2008年中国部分船舶工业相关上市公司毛利润率情况
表6-2 2007年主要船舶工业企业经营概况
表6-3 2008年造船完工情况排名
表6-4 2008年新承接船舶订单情况排名
表6-5 2008年手持船舶订单情况排名
表6-6 2008年中船集团利润表
表6-7 2008年中船重工利润表
表6-8 2008年广船国际利润表
表7-1 2005-2010 年世界船舶需求预测
表7-2 2020年前全球每年新船需求量预测(万载重吨)
表7-3 未来几年中国对船舶的需求量预测（万载重吨）
表7-4 中国船用柴油机企业排名
表7-5 中国低速船用柴油机年需求量预测
表7-6 不同船舶的合理建造周期（单位：月）

Total Industrial Output Value of China’s Shipbuilding Industry, 2003-2008
Sales Revenue and Profit of China’s Shipbuilding Industry, 2003-2008
China’s Ship Export Growth, 2003-2008
Global Accomplished Shipbuilding Output
20mm Medium Plate Price in China ,2008
Cargo Transport Volume by Waterway in China, 2007-2010e
Container Terminal Construction in China
Growth Rate of Global Seaborne Trade of Iron Ore, 1999-2009e
China’s Iron Ore Import, 2001-2009e
The Positive Correlation of Global Container Seaborne Trade and GDP
Growth Rate of Global Container Seaborne Trade, 2005-2009e
Global Newly Undertook Ship Orders Break Down by Bulk Carrier, Oil Tanker and Container Ship
Performance of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, 2006-2008
Performance of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., 2006-2008
Performance of Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd., 2006-2008
Performance of Jiangsu New Times Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. 2006-2008
Development s of China’s Macro Economy, 2003-2008
Distribution of Above 50,000 Tons Ship-building Facilities in China
Global Proportion of China’s Accomplished Shipbuilding Output, Newly Undertook Orders and Orders in
Hand,2008
Global Market Share and Ranking of China’s Shipbuilding Industry in the Past 13 Years
Top Ten Shipbuilding Enterprises by Newly Undertook Orders in China, 2008
Top Ten Shipbuilding Enterprises by Orders in Hand in China, 2008
Profit of China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Accumulated Assets of China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Losses of China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Cost of Sales of China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Financial Cost of China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Price Trend of Oil Tanker and Bulk Carrier
Newly-added Production Capacity of Shipbuilding in China, 2008-2010e
Shipbuilding Facilities in South Korea (above 50,000 tons)
Shipbuilding Facilities in Japan (above 50,000 tons)
Shipbuilding Competition between China and South Korean
Under-construction Shipbuilding Facilities in China
China’s Marine Diesel Engine Output
China’s Medium Plate Output in 2008
China’s Waterway Transport Capacity and The Quantity of Existing Ships
Growth of China’s Port Industry
Major Imported Components for Ocean-going Vessels Manufacturing in China
Annual Demand for Low-speed Marine Diesels
Annual Average Ship Demand of Japan, China and South Korea
Gross Profit Margin of Some Listed Shipbuilding Companies in China in 2008
Operation of Major Chinese Shipbuilding Enterprises in 2007
Ranking of Chinese Shipbuilding Enterprises by Newly Undertook Orders in 2008
Ranking of Chinese Shipbuilding Enterprises by Orders in Hand in 2008
Profit of China State Shipbuilding Corporation in 2008
Profit of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation in 2008
Profit of Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd. in 2008
Global Ship Demand, 2005-2010e
Global Annual Ship Demand, 2009-2012e
Ranking of Chinese Marine Diesel Manufacturers
China’s Annual Demand for Low-speed Marine Diesels
Constructional Period for Different Types of Ship