本报告从全球镍行业发展现状出发，重点分析了中国镍资源储备、市场供求现状、进出口、价格走势、替代产品（镍铁）、重点企业等。中国镍行业具有如下特征：

1， 中国镍储量较少

　　基础储量为760万吨，仅占全球的5%，集中分布在甘肃省（占中国镍总储量的62%），且多以硫化铜镍矿为主（占中国镍总储量的91%）；

2， 与全球镍行业发展不同，近年中国镍行业产销持续增加

　　近年来，全球镍产量和消费量持续下滑，且出现供过于求的局面。2008年受金融危机影响，全球镍价暴跌，镍企纷纷减产，镍产量同比下滑3.2%，至137.8万吨；同年全球镍消费量在不锈钢需求下滑的影响下，同比下滑3.4%，至127.8万吨，全年镍供应过剩10万吨；2009年全球镍市场依然低迷，镍产量达到132.9万吨，同比下滑3.6%，镍消费量为123.2万吨，全年镍供应过剩9.7万吨。

　　与之形成鲜明对照的是中国镍行业——镍产销量持续增加，且呈现供不应求的局面。2008年，中国镍产量为13.3万吨，消费量为32.0万吨，供需缺口18.7万吨；2009年中国镍产量和消费量分别为21.6万吨、44.7万吨，供需缺口继续扩大，达23.1万吨。

图：2006-2009年中国镍产量和消费量（单位：千吨）
 
来源：国家统计局，水清木华研究中心

3， 中国镍资源紧缺，镍矿和精炼镍主要依赖进口

　　2009年中国进口镍矿砂及精矿量1640万吨，主要进口菲律宾（进口量869.15万吨，占总进口量52.9%）、印度尼西亚（进口量717.43万吨，占总进口量43.7%）等国；同年中国进口精炼镍25万吨，主要来自俄罗斯（进口8.44万吨）、澳大利亚（进口4.8万吨）等国。2009年中国精炼镍和合金出口量为3.36万吨，主要出口国家/地区有韩国、中国香港、中国台湾等。

4， 中国镍价与国际镍价走势基本一致，2009年呈现“震荡上扬”趋势；

5， 中国镍铁兴起于高镍价时期，全部用于不锈钢领域，以进口为主；

　　中国镍铁始于2005年，全面扩张在2007年，其镍金属含量也迅速提高，2005年为2000吨，2007年剧增到10.8万吨。2008年受镍价理性回归以及金融危机影响，镍铁产量下滑至5.5万吨。2009年达到10万吨左右。

　　镍铁是红土镍矿火法冶炼而成，由于中国红土镍矿的稀缺，镍铁主要依赖进口，2009年累计进口22.7万吨，主要进口国为哥伦比亚（占总进口量33.4%）、日本（占总进口量30.8%）、新喀里多尼亚（占总进口量16.7%）。2010年1-4月，中国进口日本的镍铁有所增加，其在总进口量中的比重提升至33%。

6、金川集团是中国最大的镍生产商，其2009年镍产量达到13万吨，占中国镍总产量的60.2%，位居全球第二。

图：2007-2010年金川集团镍产量（单位：千吨）
 
来源：水清木华研究中心

The report starts from the development of nickel industry all over the world, and focuses upon analysis of nickel resource reserves, status quo of supply and demand in the market, import & export, price trend, substitutive product (ferro-nickel) and key enterprises etc in China. The nickel industry of China is characterized as follows:

First, China is short of nickel reserve;
Basic reserve of nickel reaches 7.6 million tons in China, a share of only 5% in global total, which converges in Gansu province (taking 62% of China’s total nickel reserves) and are led by copper-nickel sulfide ore (accounting for 91% of China’s total nickel reserves).

Second, the production and sales of China’s nickel industry showed the sustained growth in recent years;
In recent years, nickel output and consumption keeps falling worldwide, with the supply exceeding market demand. Inflicted by financial crisis in 2008, global nickel price slumped and nickel enterprises cut their production in succession. As a result, nickel output decreased to 1.378 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year. In the same year, the world’s consumption of nickel fell 3.4% year-on-year to 1.278 million tons affected by the declining demand of stainless steel. In all, the surplus of supply got to 100,000 tons in 2008. The global nickel market still remained sluggish in 2009 when nickel output amounted to 1.329 million tons, decreasing by 3.6%; nickel consumption hit 1.232 million tons; and supply overplus arrived at 97,000 tons.

In contrast, the nickel production and sales of China nickel industry keeps growing, with the supply falling short of market demand. In 2008, nickel output and consumption of China reached 133,000 tons and 320,000 tons respectively, with a demand gap of 187,000 tons. Then in 2009, the figures rose to 216,000 tons and 447,000 tons respectively, a growing demand gap of 231,000 tons.

Nickel Ouput and Consumption of China, 2006-2009 (Unit: Kt)
 
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ResearchInChina

Third, China relies upon import of nickel ore and concentrates since its scarcity of nickel resources;
In 2009, China imported 16.4 million tons of nickel ore and concentrates mainly from the Philippines (8.6915 million tons, a 52.9% share of total import volume), Indonesia (7.1743 million tons, a 43.7% share of total import volume), and other countries. Meanwhile, China’s import of refined nickel got to 250,000 tons in 2009, primarily sourced from Russia (84,400 tons), Australia (48,000 tons) and others. In the same year, China exported 33,600 tons of refined nickel and alloy to South Korea, Hong Kong (China), Taiwan (China), etc.

Fourth, nickel price runs nearly the same in China and the world at large, and it presented the uptrend of fluctuations in the year of 2009;

Next, ferro-nickel emerged in the era of high nickel prices in China, which gets wholly used in stainless steel field and depends on import;

China’s ferro-nickel industry emerged in 2005 and expanded in 2007. The nickel content of ferro-nickel improves rapidly. The output of ferro-nickel was up from 2,000 tons in 2005 to 108,000 tons in 2007. Due to the reasonable regression of nickel price as well as the influences of financial crisis, the ferro-nickel output dropped to 55,000 tons in 2008, and it  hit around 100,000 tons in 2009.

Ferro-nickel is produced from the smelting of laterite-nickel ore, and it has to rely on import since China is short of laterite nickel ore. In 2009, China imported 227,000 tons of ferro-nickel accumulatively from Columbia (a 33.4% share of total import volume), Japan (a 30.8% share of total import volume), and New Caledonia (a 16.7% share of total import volume). From January to April of 2010, China’s import of ferro-nickel from Japan increased to some extent, with the rising proportion of imports from Japan to 33%.

Last, nickel output of Jinchuan Group, as the largest producer of nickel in China, reached 130,000 tons in 2009, accounting for 60.2% of total nickel output of China and ranking second worldwide.

Nickel Output of Jinchuan Group, 2007-2010 (Unit: Kt)
 
Source: ResearchInChina