电子书市场兴起和成熟于美国,而如今电子书阅读作为方便、环保的全新阅读形式在开始在全世界迅速普及。2008年全球电子书市场出货量约100万部,而2009年迅速增长至382万部,预计2010年可达930万部。美国亚马逊公司(Amazon)的Kindle、汉王科技的电纸书以及索尼的Reader,三家的总销量占据了超过全球90%的市场份额。2009 年,中国电纸书阅读器销量约为38 万台,其中汉王电子书销量约为26万台。2010年上半年中国电子书市场总销售量48.03万部。
随着智能手机的普及以及iPad的推出,电子书的降价进程也将加快。2010年,亚马逊公司将Kindle的价格从259美元下调至189美元,使得2010年上半年Kindle的销量是2009年上半年的三倍。预计2010下半年电子书市场仍有较大增长空间。
从电子书行业的上游、中游和下游厂商来看,上游电子书原料主要技术厂商E Ink和SiPix被中游的台湾厂商元太和友达整合,其中元太收购E Ink 100%股份,而友达收购SiPix31.58%的股权。下游终端厂商则以内容资源为核心竞争力,汉王定位在市场畅销书;方正阿帕比专注于学术方面;盛大文学则是面向青少年更为热衷的网络文学,而各个出版社也都是以自身原有资源为主要内容支持。
从电子书经营模式来看,美国的电子书产业模式相对比较成熟。例如亚马逊模式中,移动运营商只是内容下载的通道,同时提供终端设备和内容下载平台的亚马逊则是产业的主导者,终端+内容的是亚马逊成功的经营模式。2010年6月,亚马逊通过70%版税方案,对营业模式进行修改和完善,更好的协调了产业链各厂商的利益。
中国电子书的经营模式还处于摸索期,分别出现了以终端厂商主导模式、运营商主导模式、电子书门户模式和出版社主导模式等四种。
终端厂商主导模式的成功代表是汉王科技。汉王科技已经投入3000万人民币进行汉王书城的搭建和内容的购买。汉王吸取亚马逊模式经验,充分考虑内容商的利益,与内容提供商进行二八分成,迅速建立起终端+内容的模式。
运营商主导模式以中国移动的手机阅读基地为代表。和美国的移动运营商相比,中国运营商的影响力和控制力更强,有充足的资源与内容商谈判、建立下载平台并推广终端。中国移动通过定制终端,与内容提供商合作,开发3G电子书业务。但其和内容商的四六分成原则对内容商吸引力较小、内容收费模式套搬原有增值业务模式、对终端的补贴短时间内无法获得较大的利润空间。不仅如此,中国移动的电子阅读业务还将面临后起的中国联通和中国电信的激烈竞争,所以其3G电子阅读业务的发展还存在不小的变数。
图:运营商主导经营模式
来源:水清木华研究中心
电子书门户模式的典型代表是有盛大和方正,分别依靠盛大文学网络和番薯网作为强大的电子书内容平台。其中盛大的锦书有较大发展空间,因为锦书的内容支持不仅仅是盛大文学旗下的诸多文学作品,还有华友世纪的音乐,盛世影业的电影甚至盛大游戏。这使得高高在上的中国移动也愿意和盛大合作。
最后一种是出版社主导模式,如上海世纪出版集团,通过自主研发推出辞海阅读器,内置其自身强大内容。短期来看,出版社主导模式没有版权困扰,拥有优质内容资源。但是从长远来看,出版商的内容优势或将成为其发展的禁锢。独家内容总是有限的,一家出版社的内容不能满足用户丰富多样的阅读要求。传统出版社唯一的出路是通过收购兼并,整合为超级传媒集团,才有可能在电子阅读市场谋一席之地。
Emerged and matured in the United States, eBook has swept the globe as a brand new convenient and eco-friendly medium for reading. The global eBook shipment was about 1 million in 2008, jumped to 3.82 million in 2009, and is expected to hit 9.3 million by 2010. Amazon Kindle, Hanvon eBook Reader and Sony Reader account for more than 90% of global market sales. In China, about 380,000 eBook readers, including 260,000 from Hanwang, were sold in 2009, and 480,300 were sold in the first half of 2010.
With the popularity of smart phones and the launch of iPad, the price of eBook reader will decline quickly. In 2010, Amazon reduced the price of Kindle from US$259 to US$189, making its sales volume in H1 2010 three times more than that in H1 2009. It is expected that the eBook market will keep growing in H2 2010.
In terms of upstream, midstream and downstream of eBook industry, upstream technology vendors E Ink and SiPix were integrated with midstream Taiwanese manufacturers PVI and AUO respectively. PVI acquired 100% stake in E Ink, while AUO got 31.58% shares of SiPix. Downstream terminal manufacturers regard content resources as their core competiveness, for example, Hanwang focuses on best-selling books; Founder Apabi focuses on academic books; Shanda Literature focuses on Internet literature which young people are more interested in, and publishing houses also develop content based on their existing resources.
As for the eBook business model, the USA’s eBook industry model is relatively mature. For example, in Amazon’s model, mobile operators are only the channels for content download, while Amazon, offering both terminal device and content download platform, is the leader of the industry. The “terminal + content” model of Amazon is successful. In June 2010, Amazon adopted a 70% royalty plan to improve its business model and further coordinate the interests of manufacturers in the industry chain.
China’s eBook business model is still in the exploration phase, and current models include the terminal manufacturer-dominated model, the operator-dominated model, the eBook portal model and the publishing house-dominated model.
Hanwang has given a successful example of the terminal manufacturer-dominated model. It invested RMB30 million in establishing Hanvon E-book Store and purchasing content. Learning from Amazon’s experience, it has taken the interests of content providers into full account, split profits 20/80 with content providers, and established the “terminal + content” model quickly.
The successful example of the operator-dominated model is set by China Mobile with its mobile reading base. Compared with American mobile operators, China’s mobile operators are more powerful in influence and control, and have sufficient resources to negotiate with content providers, set up download platforms and promote terminals. By customizing terminals, China Mobile cooperates with content providers to develop 3G eBook business. However, its 40/60 profit split method is not so attractive to content providers, the content charging mode is copying from the original charging mode for value-added services, and the subsidies for terminals cannot bring a larger profit margin in a short time. Besides, its eReading business is facing the ferocious competition from latecomers China Telecom and China Unicom, so its 3G eReading business is facing a fickle future.
Operator-dominated Model
Source: ResearchInChina
Typical examples of the eBook portal model are Shanda and Founder, which have built Shanda Literature and Fanshu as their eBook content platforms respectively. Shanda’s Bambook has great potentials, because Bambook provides not only the literature of Shanda, but also the music of Hurray, the movies of Shanda Pictures, and even the games of Shanda, that’s also why the mighty China Mobile is willing to cooperate with Shanda.
The typical example of the publishing house-dominated model is set by Shanghai Century Publishing Group, which released the Cihai Reader with massive content by independent research and development. In a short term, the publishing house-dominated model can possess high-quality content resources without copyright concerns; but in the long run, the content advantages of publishers may become the barrier to their development. Exclusive content is always limited, and the content of one publishing house cannot meet the diversified demand of all readers. The only way out for traditional publishing houses to grab a share in the eReading market is to form super-media groups through mergers and acquisitions.