2011年中国养老服务行业研究报告 >> 水清木华研究中心

　　截至2010年底，中国人口共13.4亿人。60岁及以上人口为1.8亿人，占13.3%；65岁及以上人口为1.2亿人，占8.9%。按照居所的不同，养老服务可以分为居家养老和机构养老。一直以来，居家养老是中国养老的主要模式，但是随着居民收入和储蓄的显著增加，越来越多的老年人选择机构养老。

　　中国机构医疗养老主要包括公益性机构（敬老院、社会福利院等），老年公寓以及老年医疗机构等三个部分。目前，中国敬老院和社会福利院主要依靠政府部门运营，而养老院则以民办为主。截至2009年底，中国养老机构共有38060个，床位266.2万张。但是中国养老机构远远不能满足国内需求，按照国际标准测算，中国养老床位缺口达568.8万张。此外，中国从事老年医疗服务的医院、设立老年病科的综合医院数量还很少，老年医疗机构正处于起步阶段。

　　根据全国老龄委办公室调查显示，中国城市老人中，选择住养老院等养老机构的占6%-8%，但中高收入的老人希望与子女同住的只占很少的比例。2020年之前，中国仅离退休人员可用于购置住宅的资金总额将达2.8万亿元。由此可见，老年公寓等养老地产项目需求将十分强劲，市场发展潜力巨大。

表：中国近年部分养老机构投资项目

来源：水清木华研究中心

　　目前，老年公寓、老年社区等养老地产项目正成为投资热点，民营企业、房地产龙头企业、保险企业、境外资本纷纷涌入。上海亲和源、“夕阳红”连锁老人公寓等民营企业的养老地产项目早已投入运营，目标更是向全国扩张。

　　房地产企业如万科、保利于2010年底开始了旗下首个养老地产项目的运作；保险公司如泰康人寿、中国人寿也纷纷在热点地区为项目“圈地”。

　　境外企业如城堡投资计划首个养老社区将落户沿海城市，投资金额约10亿美元，Emeritus Corp.等也加快了进入中国市场的步伐。在政策方面，民政部对外资在中国兴办养老机构持鼓励态度。

　　养老地产项目的选址对自然环境、经济环境、人口增容政策、消费水平要求较高。此外，中国养老地产仍处于初级阶段，项目的土地获取方式、资金回流情况、项目的后期运营模式等都将对投资回报产生影响。

As of the end of 2010, the total population of China hit 1.34 billion, among which, 180 million people were at or above 60 years old, with the proportion of 13.3%; 120 million people were at or above 65 years old, with the proportion of 8.9%. In terms of the residence for the aged people, aged care service consists of home-based care service and institution-based care service. The former has long been the major model of aged care service in China. However, with the sharp surge in the income and savings of the Chinese citizens, more and more aged people prefer institution-based care service.

The institution-based aged care service in China is mainly composed of non-profit public organizations (such as old people’s home and social welfare institute), apartment for the aged and healthcare institutions for the aged. Presently, old people’ homes and social welfare institutes are mainly run by the government, while home care centers for the senior are mainly privately-owned in China. As of the end of 2009, China had a total of 38,060 aged care institutions with 2.662 million beds, which was far from meeting the domestic demand. Measured by the international standard, China faces a shortage of 5.688 million aged care beds. In addition, there is limited number of hospitals specializing in the healthcare service for the senior or general hospitals with department of geriatrics in China, and China’s medical institutions for the senior are in their infancy.

According to the statistics released by China National Committee on Ageing, among urban senior citizens in China, about 6%-8% tend to live in aged care institutions like home care centers for the aged. But old people with high-and medium-level income are less likely to live with their children. Before 2020, the total capital for the Chinese retirees to purchase residences is expected to hit RMB2.8 trillion. In this sense, China will see a robust demand for aged care real estate, such as the apartment for the aged, bringing promising market.

Investment Projects of Aged Care Institutions in China

Source: ResearchInChina

Aged care real estate projects, taking old people’s department and old people’s community for example, have been becoming hot investment topics these days, attracting private enterprises, flagship real estate enterprises, insurance companies and overseas capital. In particular, privately-owned enterprises including Shanghai Qinheyuan and Sunset Glow have put their aged care real estate projects into operation and glued their eyes across China.

At year-end 2010, real estate enterprises including Vanke and Poly Real Estate Group initiated their first aged care properties. Additionally, insurance companies like Taikang Life and China Life Insurance Company also followed suit.

Fortress, an overseas enterprise, is projected to settle its first aged care community in a coastal city, with investment of USD1 billion approximately. Other foreign companies including Emeritus Corp. have quickened their pace in exploring Chinese market. The Ministry of Civil Affairs gives policy support to overseas enterprises for their investment in aged care institutions in China.

In site selection, aged care real estate projects have higher requirements on the natural and economic environment, population expansion policy and consumption level. Furthermore, the aged care real estate of China is still in its infancy, and the land acquisition mode, capital recycling and the later-stage operation model of a project will directly affect the return on investment.

第一章养老产业概述
1.1 定义及分类
1.2 基本特点
1.2.1 综合性
1.2.2 福利性
1.2.3 公益性
1.2.4 营利性

第二章中国养老市场投资运行环境分析
2.1 宏观经济环境
2.1.1 GDP
2.1.2 CPI
2.2 产业政策环境
2.2.1 “十二五”规划
2.2.2 其他政策法规
2.3 医疗卫生环境
2.3.1医疗机构数
2.3.2 医疗机构床位数
2.3.3 卫生技术人员数
2.3.4 病床使用情况
2.4 养老保障体系
2.4.1 养老生活保障
2.4.2 医疗保障体系

第三章中国养老市场现状
3.1 市场供需
3.1.1 养老需求容量
3.1.2 养老服务市场供给
3.1.3 中国养老市场存在的主要问题
3.2 世界主要养老模式借鉴
3.2.1 欧美主要养老模式
3.2.2 亚洲主要养老模式
3.2.3 国外养老模式借鉴

第四章居家养老市场分析
4.1 概况
4.1.1 老年人养老方式选择
4.1.2 居家养老服务需求
4.2 居家养老政策
4.3 居家养老形式
4.4 养老金融体系
4.4.1 主要内容
4.4.2 养老保险
4.4.3 护理保险
4.5 居家养老市场存在的问题

第五章养老机构市场分析
5.1 养老机构的分类
5.2 养老设施供需
5.2.1 中国养老设施供应增加
5.2.2 中国机构养老需求量大
5.3 民办养老机构市场分析
5.3.1 民办养老机构东丰西瘠
5.3.2 民办养老机构入住人群年龄结构
5.3.3 影响老年人入住养老机构原因分析
5.3.4 民办养老机构存在的问题
5.4 养老地产市场
5.4.1 养老地产需求强劲
5.4.2 养老地产供应不足
5.4.3养老地产的商业模式
5.4.4 养老地产竞争现状
5.4.5 养老地产外资准入情况
5.4.6 养老地产存在的问题
5.5 拟在建项目
5.5.1 养老院、敬老院和社会福利院
5.5.2老年公寓（老年社区）
5.5.3 老年医疗机构
5.5.4 其他

第六章重点竞争企业分析
6.1 汇晨老年公寓
6.1.1 简介
6.1.2 运营情况
6.1.3 发展战略
6.2 上海亲和源股份有限公司
6.2.1 公司简介
6.2.2 经营管理情况
6.2.3 发展战略
6.3 天津鹤童老年福利协会
6.3.1 简介
6.3.2 经营管理情况
6.3.3 发展动态
6.4 夕阳红连锁老人公寓
6.4.1 背景介绍
6.4.2 运营方式
6.4.3 江苏江阴夕阳红老年康乐中心
6.5 恒晖医疗
6.5.1 简介
6.5.2 经营管理情况
6.6 河北廊坊燕达国际健康城
6.6.1 简介
6.6.2 重点项目分析
6.6.3 经营方式和发展战略

1. Overview of Aged Care Industry
1.1 Definition & Classification
1.2 Features
1.2.1 Comprehensiveness
1.2.2 Welfare
1.2.3 Public Benefit
1.2.4 Profitability

2. Investment & Operation Environment of China Aged Care Market
2.1 Macro-Economy Environment
2.1.1 GDP
2.1.2 CPI
2.2 Industry Policy Environment
2.2.1 The 12th Five-Year Plan
2.2.2 Other Policies and Regulations
2.3 Medical & Health Environment
2.3.1 Quantity of Medical Establishment
2.3.2 Bed Quantity of Medical Establishment
2.3.3 Health Workers
2.3.4 Hospital Bed Occupancy
2.4 Old-Age Security System
2.4.1 Aged Care Living Security
2.4.2 Medical Insurance System

3. Status Quo of China Aged Care Market
3.1 Supply & Demand
3.1.1 Demand
3.1.2 Supply
3.1.3 Problems in China Aged Care Market
3.2 Major Aged Care Models Worldwide for Reference
3.2.1 Major Aged Care Models in Europe and America
3.2.2 Major Aged Care Models in Asia
3.2.3 Major Aged Care Models Abroad for Reference

4. Home-Based Aged Care Market
4.1 Overview
4.1.1 Senior’s Choice of Aged Care Models
4.1.2 Demand for Home-Based Aged Care Service
4.2 Policy of Home-Based Aged Care
4.3 Form of Home-Based Aged Care
4.4 Financial System of Aged Care
4.4.1 Contents
4.4.2 Endowment Insurance
4.4.3 Care Insurance
4.5 Problems in Home-Based Aged Care Market

5. Aged Care Institution Market
5.1 Classification of Aged Care Institution
5.2 Supply & Demand of Aged Care Facilities
5.2.1 Increase in the Supply of Aged Care Facilities in China
5.2.2 Considerable Demand for Institution-Based Aged Care in China
5.3 Privately-Owned Aged Care Institution Market
5.3.1 Large Quantities of Aged Care Institutions in East China while Small Quantities in West China
5.3.2 Age Structure of People Living in Privately-Owned Aged Care Institutions
5.3.3 Reasons for the Senior to Check in Aged Care Institutions
5.3.4 Problems in Privately-Owned Aged Care Institutions
5.4 Aged Care Real Estate Market
5.4.1 Robust Demand for Aged Care Real Estate
5.4.2 Short Supply of Aged Care Real Estate
5.4.3 Business Model of Aged Care Real Estate
5.4.4 Current Competition
5.4.5 Foreign Capital Admittance
5.4.6 Problems in Aged Care Real Estate
5.5 Projects under Planning or Construction
5.5.1 Old People’s Home, Social Welfare Institute & Home Care Center for the Senior
5.5.2 Old People’s Apartment (Old People’s Community)
5.5.3 Medical Establishment for the Aged
5.5.4 Others

6. Key Enterprises
6.1 Huichen Life
6.1.1 Profile
6.1.2 Operation
6.1.3 Development Strategy
6.2 Shanghai Qinheyuan
6.2.1 Profile
6.2.2 Operation & Management
6.2.3 Development Strategy
6.3 Tianjin Hetong Senior Citizen’s Welfare Association
6.3.1 Profile
6.3.2 Operation & Management
6.3.3 Development Dynamic
6.4 Sunset Glow Chain Seniors’ Apartment
6.4.1 Background
6.4.2 Operation
6.4.3 Jiangyin Sunset Glow Seniors’ Recreation Center
6.5 Shanghai Henghui Medical Treatment Technique Progress
6.5.1 Profile
6.5.2 Operation & Management
6.6 Yanda International Health City
6.6.1 Profile
6.6.2 Key Projects
6.6.3 Operation Model & Development Strategy

图：养老产业相关产业链
图：2006-2010年GDP及其增长率（单位：十亿元）
图：2006-2010年GDP分产业占比情况
图：2008-2010年CPI变动趋势
表：“十二五”期间养老产业建设目标
表：养老产业部分政策
表：2010年中国医疗机构数(个)
表：2010年中国医疗机构床位数(万张)
表：2010年中国卫生技术人员数
表：2010年中国医疗服务工作效率
图：2005-2009年中国参加城镇职工基本养老保险人数（单位：百万人）
图：2005-2009年中国城镇基本养老保险基金收支情况（单位：十亿元）
图：2005-2009年中国参加农村养老保险及领取养老金人数（单位：百万人）
图：2005-2009年中国农村养老金支付及养老保险基金结存（单位：十亿元）
图：2006-2010年中国城市居民最低生活保障人数（单位：百万人、百万户）
图：2006-2010年中国城市居民最低生活保障标准及支出水平（单位：元/人、月）
图：2007-2010年中国农村居民最低生活保障人数（单位：百万人、百万户）
图：2007-2010年中国农村居民最低生活保障标准及支出水平（单位：元/人、月）
图：2004-2010年中国农村五保供养人数（单位：千人）
图：2007-2010年中国农村五保供养平均标准（单位：元/人、年）
图：2005-2009年中国城镇基本医疗保险人数及增长率（单位：百万人）
图：2005-2009年中国城镇职工基本医疗保险人数（单位：百万人）
图：2009年中国城镇职工、居民基本医疗保险人数占比
图：2006-2010中国总人口数及老龄人口占比（单位：百万人）
图：2008年全国城市老年人健康状况比较
图：1953-2010年中国平均家庭户规模（单位：人/户）
图：2004-2009年中国老年人口抚养比（单位：%）
表：2008-2009年中国养老机构、床位数及收养人员数
表：2009年中国养老机构（分类别）床位数及年末收养老人数
表：国外几种养老模式（社区）的比较
表：2008年城市居家养老服务需求率与满足率比较
表：中国主要的专门养老保险机构
表：人保健康长期护理保险的主要内容及利益
表：2009年中国养老设施供应情况
图：中国民办养老机构入住人群年龄占比情况
图：影响老年人入住养老院的原因占比
图：老年人选择养老院的影响因素占比
表：近期涉足养老地产的主要企业及运作项目
表：新建浦江镇敬老院工程
表：赣州市社会福利院老年公寓工程
表：北京市门头沟老年社会福利中心项目
表：重庆市第一社会福利院国家级示范养老机构建设项目
表：长治市老年福利服务中心工程
表：沈阳市养老服务中心（二期）工程
表：中北镇养老院、医院建设项目
表：水韵天伦居老年健康生态社区项目
表：银河社区老年公寓居家养老服务中心项目
表：圆明山旅游度假区国际养老中心建设项目
表：天津生态城老年社区项目
表：北京泰康人寿昌平养老院项目
表：福建省老年医院病房楼、门诊综合楼建设项目
表：河北省老年病医院（省职业病医院）新建病房楼项目
表：君莲养老院及失智老人康复治疗中心项目
表：乐山市老年大学工程
表：汇晨老年公寓经营方式相关内容
表：汇晨公寓床位供给情况
表：上海亲和源会员卡类别及其费用和权益
表：鹤童老人五级护理评定等级界定标准及护理费用（单位：元/人/天）
表：“夕阳工程”内容
表：2009年江阴市夕阳红爱心护理院收费标准（单位：元/月）
表：2009年上海徐汇区日月星养老院收费标准（单位：元/月）
表：燕达国际健康城五大板块介绍

Aged Care-related Industry Chain
GDP & Its Growth Rate, 2006-2010
Proportion of GDP by Industry, 2006-2010
CPI Variation, 2008-2010
Development Goal of Aged Care Industry during 12th Five-Year Plan Period
Aged Care Industry Policies
Quantity of Medical Institutions in China, 2010
Bed Quantity of Medical Institutions in China, 2010
Health Workers in China, 2010
Work Efficiency of Medical Service in China, 2010
Number of Urban Employees Involved in Basic Endowment Insurance in China, 2005-2009
Income and Expenses of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund in Urban Regions of China, 2005-2009
Number of People in Rural Regions Participating in and Enjoying Endowment Insurance, 2005-2009
Pension Payment and Balance of Endowment Insurance Fund in Rural Regions of China,2005-2009
Number of People Enjoying Subsistence Allowances for the Urban Poor in China, 2006-2010
Standard & Expenditure Level of Subsistence Allowances for the Urban Poor in China, 2006-2010
Number of People Enjoying Subsistence Allowances for the Rural Poor in China, 2007-2010
Standard & Expenditure Level of Subsistence Allowances for the Rural Poor in China, 2007-2010
Number of People Enjoying the Five Guarantees in Rural Areas of China, 2004-2010
Average Standard for the Five Guarantees in Rural Areas of China, 2007-2010
Number of People Enjoying Basic Medical Insurance in Urban Regions of China and Growth Rate, 2005-2009
Number of Employees Enjoying Basic Medical Insurance in Urban Regions of China, 2005-2009
Proportion of Employees and Citizens Enjoying Basic Medical Insurance in Urban Regions of China, 2009
Total Population of China and Proportion of the Aged, 2006-2010
Physical Condition of the Aged in Cities Nationwide, 2008
Average Size of Chinese Families, 1953-2010
Dependency Ratio of the Aged Population in China, 2004-2009
Quantity of Aged Care Institution, Bed and Recipient in China, 2008-2009
Bed Quantity and Year-end Number of Recipients of Aged Care Institutions in China by Type, 2009
Comparison of Aged Care Models (Community) Overseas
Demand Ratio and Satisfaction Rate of Home-Based Aged Care Service in Urban Regions of China, 2008
Main Specialized Endowment Insurance Institutions of China
Main Contents and Benefits of Long-Term Care Insurance of PICC
Supply of Aged Care Facilities in China, 2009
Age Structure of People Checking in Privately-Owned Aged Care Institutions of China
Proportion of Reasons for the Aged to Check in the Home Care Center of the Senior
Proportion of Reasons for the Aged to Choose the Home Care Center of the Senior
Key Enterprises and Projects in Operation Engaged in Aged Care Real Estate These Days
Newly-Built Old People’s Home Project in Pujiang Town
Old People’s Apartment Project of Ganzhou Social Welfare Institute
Old People’s Social Welfare Center Project in Mentougou , Beijing
Chongqing No.1 Social Welfare Institute, National-Level Demonstration Aged Care Institution Construction Project
Old People’s Welfare Service Center Project in Changzhi
Shenyang Aged Care Service Center Project (phase II)
Home Care Center for the Senior & Hospital Construction Project in Zhongbei Town
Shui Yun Tian Lun Old People’s Health Ecological Community Project
Home-Based Aged Care Service Center Project of Yinhe Community
International Aged Care Center Construction Project, Yuanmingshan Tourist Resort
Tianjin Eco-City Old People’s Community Project
Changping Home Care Center for the Senior Project, Beijing Taikang Life
Ward Building, Outpatient Complex Construction Project, Fujian Geriatric Hospital
Newly-Built Ward Building Project of Hebei Geriatric Disease Hospital (Provincial Occupational Disease Hospital)
Jun Lian Home Care Center for the Senior & Rehabilitation Center Project for the Elderly People with Dementia
Leshan College for Seniors Project
Operation Pattern of Huichen Life
Bed Supply of Huichen Life
Membership Card Category, Expense, Rights & Interests of Shanghai Qinheyuan
Five-Grade Nursing Rating Definition & Nursing Fee of Hetong Senior Citizen’s Home
Content of Sunset Project
Charging Standard of Sunset Glow Love Nursing Home in Jiangyin, 2009
Charging Standard of Riyuexing Nursing Home in Xuhui, Shanghai, 2009
Yanda International Health City