2012-2015年中国养老产业研究报告 >> 水清木华研究中心

　　目前中国老龄化已进入加速期。2012年，中国60岁及以上老年人口数量达到1.94亿，老龄化水平达到14.3%；2013年达到2.02亿，老龄化水平达到14.8%。同时，高龄老年人、无子女老年人、失能老人及慢性病老年人数量持续增多也加剧了中国人口老龄化的严峻性。

　　为积极应对人口老龄化，中国政府出台了一系列政策扶持老龄事业发展，着力构建以居家为基础、以社区为依托、以机构为支撑的社会养老服务体系。目前，中国大多数地区都提出“9073”计划（90%的老人为家庭养老，7%的老人从社区接受养老服务，3%的老人为机构养老），“十二五”期间将逐步建立起集中照料服务与社区居家服务互为补充的养老服务体系。

　　截至2011年底，中国城乡养老机构达到39145个，养老床位313.2万张。但是单靠福利性养老院已经难以满足老年人口需求，按照“9073”养老体系计算，2011年中国机构养老床位供应缺口达241.8万张。同时，养老护理人员与需求仍有很大的差距，按照3:1的比例计算，中国需护理人员1000多万，而目前从业人员不足100万。

　　近年来，中国政府已主动放开和接纳社会资本进入养老领域；同时，社会老龄化加剧也使“银发经济”拥有了庞大的市场基础和潜力，社会资本陆续试水养老地产项目。上海亲和源、“夕阳红”连锁老人公寓等民营养老企业开发的项目早已投入运营；房地产企业如万科集团、保利地产、富力地产，保险企业如泰康人寿、中国人寿，多元化企业如哈工大集团、复星国际、联想控股，境外企业如城堡投资、Emeritus Corp.等也纷纷涌入养老地产市场。

表：2011-2013年中国养老地产代表性企业及项目

《2012-2015年中国养老服务行业研究报告》的内容主要包括以下内容：

中国养老产业概况，包括养老模式、产业链及基本特点等；
中国养老体系分析，包括中国养老产业政策环境、养老保障体系、医疗保障体系、金融保障体系等；
中国养老市场分析，包括养老市场需求情况、居家养老现状及存在的问题、机构养老市场供给、养老市场发展趋势等；
中国养老地产分析，包括国外先进模式借鉴、行业发展现状、行业竞争情况、行业盈利模式、拟在建项目、行业投资风险等；
中国2家房地产龙头企业、2家保险企业、6家民营企业经营情况，养老地产项目运营情况，未来发展规划等。

At present, China’s population aging has entered the accelerated phase. In 2012, 194 million people were at or above 60 years old, accounting for 14.3% of the total population. In 2013, the aged population amounts to 202 million, accounting for 14.8%. At the same time, the increasing population of the oldest, childless and disabled elderly as well as those with chronic diseases exacerbates the aging problem.

In response to the aging problem, China has issued a series of policies to support the aging industry and build the social aged care service system based on homes, communities and institutions. Now, the majority of the regions in China have proposed the “9073” plan (90% of the old people accept home-based care, 7% community-based care and 3% institution-based care). During the “Twelfth Five-Year”, China will erect the aged care service system consisting of centralized services and community- & home-based care.

As of the end of 2011, China had a total of 39,145 aged care institutions with 3.132 million beds, which was far from meeting the domestic demand. Measured by the “9073” aged care system, China faced a shortage of 2.418 million aged care beds in 2011. Meanwhile, the limited number of paramedics can not meet the demand; according to the ratio 3:1, China needs 10 million paramedics at least, but now only less than 1 million paramedics are available.

In recent years, China has allowed social capital to enter the aged care field; meanwhile, the intensified aging embodies huge potentials of the aged care market. Social capital has flown into the aged care real estate industry. For instance, the projects developed by private enterprises such as Shanghai Qinheyuan and Sunset Glow have been put into operation. Real estate companies including Vanke, Poly Real Estate and R & F Properties, insurance firms like Taikang Life and China Life Insurance, diversified enterprises such as Harbin Institute of Technology Group Inc., Fosun Group and Legend Holdings and foreign-funded corporations like Fortress Investment and Emeritus Corp. have also set foot in the aged care real estate market.

Representative Enterprises and Projects in China Aged Care Real Estate Industry, 2011-2013

The report covers the following aspects:

Overview of China aged care industry, including aged-care models, industrial chain, and basic features;

Analysis of Chinese aged care system, consisting of industry policies, medical & health system, aged care security system and financial security system;

Analysis of Chinese aged care market, containing aged care market demand, status and problems of home-based care, market supply of institution-based aged care, and development trends of aged care market;

Detailed analysis on Chinese aged care real estate, such as advanced foreign modes, industry development, competition, profit modes, proposed and ongoing projects, as well as investment risks;

Operation, aged care real estate projects and future planning of two major real estate enterprises, two insurance companies and six private enterprises.

第一章养老产业概述
1.1 定义
1.2 产业链
1.3 模式
1.3.1 家庭养老
1.3.2 机构养老
1.3.3 社区居家养老
1.4 基本特点
1.4.1 综合性
1.4.2 福利性
1.4.3 公益性
1.4.4 营利性

第二章中国养老保障体系分析
2.1 养老政策环境
2.1.1 “十二五”规划
2.1.2 其他政策法规
2.2 养老保障
2.2.1 养老保险
2.2.2 社会救助
2.2.3 高龄老年人生活补贴
2.3 医疗保障
2.3.1 城镇基本医疗保险
2.3.2 新型农村合作医疗
2.3.3 老年卫生服务
2.4 金融保障
2.4.1 养老金融
2.4.2 商业养老保险
2.4.3 护理保险
2.4.4 养老机构综合责任保险

第三章中国养老市场分析
3.1 养老市场需求
3.1.1 中国老龄化进入加速期
3.1.2 老年人口抚养比逐年上升
3.1.3 人口变动加剧老龄化严峻性
3.2 养老市场供给
3.2.1 养老格局
3.2.2 居家养老
3.2.3 机构养老
3.3 养老市场趋势
3.3.1 养老机构供需失衡严重
3.3.2 民办养老机构发展迅速
3.3.3 高端养老服务需求强劲

第四章中国养老地产市场分析
4.1 行业发展概况
4.1.1 简介
4.1.2 国外经验借鉴
4.2 行业竞争现状
4.2.1 总体情况
4.2.2 房地产企业
4.2.3 保险公司
4.2.4 多元化企业
4.2.5 外资企业
4.3 行业盈利模式
4.3.1 持有经营
4.3.2 出售+出租
4.3.3 出售
4.4 养老地产拟在建项目
4.5 行业投资风险
4.5.1 销售方式
4.5.2 盈利模式
4.5.3 配套支持政策
4.5.4 养老地产选址
4.5.5 盈利水平

第五章中国养老产业主要企业
5.1 万科股份
5.1.1 公司简介
5.1.2 经营情况
5.1.3 营收构成分析
5.1.4 毛利率分析
5.1.5 养老地产业务分析
5.2 保利地产
5.2.1 公司简介
5.2.2 经营情况
5.2.3 营收构成分析
5.2.4 毛利率分析
5.2.5 养老地产业务分析
5.3 上海亲和源
5.3.1 公司简介
5.3.2 养老地产项目
5.3.3 经营管理情况
5.3.4 发展战略
5.4 泰康人寿
5.4.1 公司简介
5.4.2 经营情况
5.4.3 营收构成分析
5.4.4 养老地产业务分析
5.5 新华保险
5.5.1 公司简介
5.5.2 经营情况
5.5.3 营收构成分析
5.5.4 养老业务分析
5.6 汇晨老年公寓
5.6.1 项目简介
5.6.2 运营情况
5.6.3 发展战略
5.7 天津鹤童老年福利协会
5.7.1 项目简介
5.7.2 经营管理情况
5.7.3 发展动态
5.8 夕阳红连锁老人公寓
5.8.1 背景介绍
5.8.2 运营方式
5.8.3 江苏江阴夕阳红老年康乐中心
5.9 恒晖医疗
5.9.1 公司简介
5.9.2 经营管理情况
5.10 河北廊坊燕达国际健康城
5.10.1 项目简介
5.10.2 重点项目分析
5.10.3 经营方式

1 Overview of Aged Care Industry
1.1 Definition
1.2 Industry Chain
1.3 Modes
1.3.1 Home-based Care
1.3.2 Institution-based Care
1.3.3 Community-based Care
1.4 Features
1.4.1 Comprehensiveness
1.4.2 Welfare
1.4.3 Public Benefit
1.4.4 Profitability

2 China's Aged Care Security System
2.1 Aged Care Policies
2.1.1 Twelfth Five-Year Plan
2.1.2 Other Policies and Regulations
2.2 Old-age Security
2.2.1 Pension Insurance
2.2.2 Social Assistance
2.2.3 Living Allowance for the Elderly at Advanced Age
2.3 Medical Security
2.3.1 Urban Basic Medical Insurance
2.3.2 New Rural Cooperative Medical
2.3.3 Elderly Health Care Services
2.4 Financial Security
2.4.1 Pension Finance
2.4.2 Commercial Pension Insurance
2.4.3 Nursing Insurance
2.4.4 Comprehensive Liability Insurance of Aged Care Institutions

3 Chinese Aged Care Market
3.1 Demand
3.1.1 China's Population Aging Enters the Accelerated Phase
3.1.2 Dependency Ratio of Elderly Population Increases Year by Year
3.1.3 Population Changes Exacerbate the Aging Problem
3.2 Supply
3.2.1 Aged Care Pattern
3.2.2 Home-based Care
3.2.3 Institution-based Care
3.3 Trends
3.3.1 Imbalance between Supply and Demand
3.3.2 Private Aged Care Institutions Develop Quickly
3.3.3 Robust Demand for High-end Aged Care Services

4 Chinese Aged Care Real Estate Market
4.1 Overview
4.1.1 Brief Introduction
4.1.2 Foreign Experience
4.2 Competition
4.2.1 Overview
4.2.2 Real Estate Enterprises
4.2.3 Insurance Companies
4.2.4 Diversified Enterprises
4.2.5 Foreign-funded Enterprises
4.3 Profit Modes
4.3.1 Self-operation
4.3.2 Sale + Lease
4.3.3 Sale
4.4 Proposed and Ongoing Aged Care Real Estate Projects
4.5 Investment Risks
4.5.1 Sales Modes
4.5.2 Profit Modes
4.5.3 Supporting Policies
4.5.4 Site Selection
4.5.5 Profitability

5 Key Enterprises in China Aged Care Industry
5.1 Vanke
5.1.1 Profile
5.1.2 Operation
5.1.3 Revenue Structure
5.1.4 Gross Margin
5.1.5 Aged Care Real Estate
5.2 Poly Real Estate
5.2.1 Profile
5.2.2 Operation
5.2.3 Revenue Structure
5.2.4 Gross Margin
5.2.5 Aged Care Real Estate
5.3 Shanghai Qinheyuan
5.3.1 Profile
5.3.2 Aged Care Real Estate Projects
5.3.3 Operation and Management
5.3.4 Development Strategy
5.4 Taikang Life
5.4.1 Profile
5.4.2 Operation
5.4.3 Revenue Structure
5.4.4 Aged Care Real Estate
5.5 New China Insurance
5.5.1 Profile
5.5.2 Operation
5.5.3 Revenue Structure
5.5.4 Aged Care Services
5.6 Huichen Life
5.6.1 Project
5.6.2 Operation
5.6.3 Development Strategy
5.7 Tianjin Hetong Senior Citizen’s Welfare Association
5.7.1 Project
5.7.2 Operation and Management
5.7.3 Development
5.8 Sunset Glow Chain Seniors’ Apartment
5.8.1 Background
5.8.2 Operation Modes
5.8.3 Jiangyin Sunset Glow Seniors’ Recreation Center
5.9 Shanghai Henghui Medical Treatment Technique Progress
5.9.1 Profile
5.9.2 Operation and Management
5.10 Yanda International Health City
5.10.1 Project
5.10.2 Key Projects
5.10.3 Operation Modes

图：养老产业相关产业链
表：“十二五”期间中国老龄事业发展重点任务
表：2001-2013年中国养老服务行业主要政策
图：2005-2012年中国参加城镇职工基本养老保险人数
图：2007-2012年中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金收入及支出
图：2007-2012年中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金累计结存
图：2004-2011年中国城乡低保人数
图：2004-2011年中国农村五保供养人数
图：2007-2011年中国农村每人每年五保供养标准
图：2007-2011年中国享受高龄补贴老年人数量
图：2005-2011年中国城镇职工及城镇居民参加基本医疗保险人数
图：2005-2011年中国城镇职工基本医疗保险在职及退休人数
图：2005-2011年中国城镇基本医疗保险基金收入及基金支出
图：2005-2011年中国城镇基本医疗保险基金累计结余
图：2007-2011年中国新农合参合人数及参合率
表：2011年中国医疗卫生机构数及床位数
图：2005-2011年中国医院数量
图：2006-2011年中国医疗卫生机构床位数
图：2006-2011年中国卫生技术人员数量
表：中国人保健康长期护理保险的主要内容及利益
图：2007-2013年中国60岁及以上人口数及占总人口数比重
图：1990-2011年中国老年人口抚养比
图：1990-2011年中国15-64岁人口占比
图：1953-2010年中国平均家庭户规模
图：2007-2012年中国社区服务设施数量
表：2008年中国城市居家养老服务需求率与满足率比较
图：2008-2011年中国各类老年人和残疾人服务机构数
图：2008-2011年中国各类老年人和残疾人服务机构床位数
图：2011年中国各地区养老机构床位使用率
表：国外几种养老模式（社区）的比较
表：2010-2013年中国房地产企业开发的养老地产项目及模式
表：2010-2013年中国保险公司开发的养老地产项目
表：2010-2013年中国多元化企业开发的养老地产项目
表：2010-2013年外资企业在华养老地产发展计划
表：中国持有经营式养老地产项目案例及经营特点
表：中国出租+出售式养老地产项目案例及经营特点
表：中国出售式养老地产项目案例及经营特点
表：2011-2013年中国养老地产拟在建项目
图：2008-2012年万科股份营业收入和净利润
表：2008-2012年万科股份（分产品）营业收入
表：2008-2012年万科股份（分地区）营业收入
表：2008-2012年万科股份毛利率（分业务）
图：2008-2012年保利地产营业收入和净利润
图：2008-2012年保利地产（分产品）营业收入
图：2008-2012年保利地产毛利率（分业务）
表：上海亲和源会员卡类别及其费用和权益
图：2008-2012年泰康人寿营业收入和净利润
图：2008-2012年泰康人寿（分产品）营业收入
图：2008-2012年新华保险营业收入和净利润
图：2008-2012年新华保险（分产品）营业收入
表：汇晨老年公寓经营方式相关内容
表：汇晨公寓床位供给情况
表：鹤童老人五级护理评定等级界定标准及护理费用（单位：元/人/天）
表：“夕阳工程”内容
表：2009年江阴市夕阳红爱心护理院收费标准（单位：元/月）
表：上海徐汇区日月星养老院收费标准（单位：元/月）
表：燕达国际健康城五大板块介绍

Aged Care-related Industry Chain
Key Tasks of Chinese Aged Industry in the 12th Five-Year
Main Aged Care Industry Policies of China, 2001-2013
Number of Urban Employees Involved in Basic Endowment Insurance in China, 2005-2012
Income and Expenses of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund in Urban Regions of China, 2007-2012
Accumulated Balances of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund in Urban Regions of China, 2007-2012
Number of People Enjoying Subsistence Allowances for the Urban and Rural Poor in China, 2004-2011
Number of People Enjoying the Five Guarantees in Rural Areas of China, 2004-2011
Average Standard for the Five Guarantees in Rural Areas of China, 2007-2011
Population of Elderly People Who Enjoy Advanced Age Subsidies in China, 2007-2011
Number of Urban Workers and Residents Who Enjoy Basic Medical Insurance in China, 2005-2011
Number of Urban On-service and Retired Workers Who Enjoy Basic Medical Insurance in China, 2005-2011
Income and Expenses of China’s Urban Basic Medical Insurance Fund, 2005-2011
Accumulated Balances of China’s Urban Basic Medical Insurance Fund, 2005-2011
Number of Participants and Participation Rate of New Rural Cooperative Medical System in China, 2007-2011
Number of Medical & Health Institutions and Number of Beds in China, 2011
Number of Hospitals in China, 2005-2011
Number of Beds of Medical and Health Institutions in China, 2006-2011
Number of Health Technicians in China, 2006-2011
Details and Benefits of Long-term Health Care Insurance of China PICC
Population Aged 60 or Above and Its Proportion in the Total Population of China, 2007-2013
Dependency Ratio of the Aged Population in China, 1990-2011
Proportion of Population Aged 15-64 in China, 1990-2011
Average Household Size in China, 1953-2010
Number of Community Service Facilities in China, 2007-2012
Demand Rate and Satisfaction Rate of Urban Home-base Aged Care Services in China, 2008
Number of Various Elderly and Disabled Service Agencies in China, 2008-2011
Number of Beds of Various Elderly and Disabled Service Agencies in China, 2008-2011
Bed Utilization of Aged Care Institutions in China by Region, 2011
Comparison between Overseas Aged Care Modes (Communities)
Aged Care Real Estate Projects and Modes of Real Estate Companies in China, 2010-2013
Aged Care Real Estate Projects of Insurance Companies in China, 2010-2013
Aged Care Real Estate Projects of Diversified Enterprises in China, 2010-2013
Aged Care Real Estate Plans of Foreign-funded Enterprises in China, 2010-2013
Cases and Operational Characteristics of Self-operation Type Aged Care Real Estate in China
Cases and Operational Characteristics of Sale + Lease Type Aged Care Real Estate in China
Cases and Operational Characteristics of Sale Type Aged Care Real Estate in China
Proposed and Ongoing Aged Care Real Estate Projects in China, 2011-2013
Revenue and Net Income of Vanke, 2008-2012
Revenue of Vanke (by Product), 2008-2012
Revenue of Vanke (by Region), 2008-2012
Gross Margin of Vanke (by Business), 2008-2012
Revenue and Net Income of Poly Real Estate, 2008-2012
Revenue of Poly Real Estate (by Product), 2008-2012
Gross Margin of Poly Real Estate (by Business), 2008-2012
Categories of Membership Cards and Their Costs & Interests of Shanghai Qinheyuan
Revenue and Net Income of Taikang Life, 2008-2012
Revenue of Taikang Life (by Product), 2008-2012
Revenue and Net Income of New China Insurance, 2008-2012
Revenue of New China Insurance (by Product), 2008-2012
Operation Modes of Huichen Life
Bed Supply of Huichen Life
Nursing Assessment Standards and Care Costs of Tianjin Hetong Elderly Welfare Association
Sunset Glow Project
Rate Standard of Jiangyin Sunset Glow Nursing Home, 2009
Rate Standard of Shanghai Sun Moon Star Nursing Home
Five Divisions of Yanda International Health City